> Study: Trends show reduced risk of war
Study: Trends show reduced risk of war
Contact:
Zoe Nielsen, executive director, Human Security Report Project, 778.239.5787; znielsen@sfu.ca
Andrew Mack, director, Human Security Report Project, 604.803.3548; amack@sfu.ca
Dixon Tam, PAMR, 778.782.8742; dixon_tam@sfu.ca
Zoe Nielsen, executive director, Human Security Report Project, 778.239.5787; znielsen@sfu.ca
Andrew Mack, director, Human Security Report Project, 604.803.3548; amack@sfu.ca
Dixon Tam, PAMR, 778.782.8742; dixon_tam@sfu.ca
December 2, 2010
Encouraging long-term trends are reducing the risks of both international and civil wars despite new threats to global security, according to the latest Human Security Report from Simon Fraser University researchers.
The study, prepared by the SFU-based Human Security Research Project (HSRP), examined recent developments that suggest the world is becoming a more dangerous place.
These include:
- Four of the world’s five deadliest conflicts – in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia – involve Islamist insurgents
- More than a quarter of the conflicts that started between 2004 and 2008 have been associated with Islamist political violence
- In the post-Cold War period, a greater percentage of the world’s countries have been involved in wars than at any time since the end of the Second World War
- Armed conflict numbers increased by 25 percent from 2003 to 2008 after declining for more than 10 years
- Intercommunal and other conflicts that do not involve a government increased by more than 100 percent from 2007 to 2008
- Impact of the global economic crisis on developing countries risks generating political instability and increasing the risk of war
- Wars have become intractable, meaning they are more difficult to bring to an end
When these factors are considered, the recent increase in conflict numbers will continue and the future could resemble the Cold War years, which saw conflict numbers triple over the span of four decades.
But despite these new global threats, HSRP director and SFU professor Andrew Mack, a former advisor to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, argues that a closer analysis of the data leads to a much less pessimistic conclusion.
The Human Security Report has three parts: The Causes of Peace; The Shrinking Costs of War; and Trends in Human Insecurity. It is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland, and published by Oxford University Press.
The report is being released in New York today.
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