Population and Ecological Models
 
 
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  Basic Concepts in Statistical Modelling  

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1] Deterministic vs. stochastic models
Statistical models are, by design, stochastic models.
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2] Linear vs non-linear models
A statistical model is linear with respect to a parameter if an estimate of that parameter can be obtained in a single iteration.
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3] Parameterization
There may be more than one way to express a particular deterministic model (i.e., functional relationship).
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4] Error specification
The error specification of a stochastic model is equal in importance to the deterministic formulation.
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5] Maximum-likelihood
Most statistical models drawing conclusions from data utilize the principle of maximum-likelihood as their basis for statistical inference.
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6] Parameter estimation
Linear models can be solved for explicit analytical expressions of the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates, given a model and data.
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7] Diagnostics
A statistical model should be rejected if it fails a posteriori goodness-of-fit diagnostics.
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8] Parsimony
Models with more free parameters typically 'fit' the data better, i.e., model error variance is reduced, but at a cost that has to be considered.
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9] Uncertainty
A underlying premise of stochastic models is that exact outcomes cannot be predicted with certainty.
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10] Bias
Typically, maximum-likelihood estimates are asymptotically unbiased.
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11] Retrospection
How well does a particular model work?
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12] Bayesian models
For many biological considerations, the concept of an underlying 'true', point, value for a parameter as a premise for statistical inference is somewhat artificial.
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