Projects & Series

Adapting to Change: Managing Fraser sockeye in the face of declining productivity and increasing uncertainty

In collaboration with the Speaking for the Salmon Program at Simon Fraser University and the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, the Adapting to Change project consists of three parts:

Part I

The first part is an invitational think tank of scientists, which will discuss possible causes for the unusual and unexpectedly low returns for Fraser River sockeye salmon in 2009.

They will address the following broad questions:

  • Is marine/ocean survival the problem?
  • What other factors must be considered to develop a better understanding of marine and freshwater survival?
  • Do forecasts provide useful information to fisheries managers?
  • How can we improve monitoring and management in a changing world?
  • Where should research be focused?

At the end of their discussions they will evaluate each possible hypothesis in the broad categories of technical errors and life cycle stage mortalities, identify areas where further research is needed, and make recommendations for management of Fraser sockeye in the future.

Bio-Sketches of invitees (PDF, 118 KB)

Resource Material (check for updates on this list):

  1. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document, Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River sockeye for 2006, A. Cass, M. Folkes, C. Parken and C. Wood, Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada. (PDF, 315 KB)
  2. Can we do pre-season forecasting effectively? If not, what can we do instead? From the Proceedings from Fraser Sockeye Salmon: Moving from Talk to Action, Randall Peterman, Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University. (PDF, 2 MB)
  3. Retrospective Evaluation of Preseason Forecasting Models for Sockeye and Chum Salmon, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 28:12-29, 2008, Steven L. Haesker, Randall Peterman and Zhenming Su, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University. (PDF, 381 KB)
  4. An Improved Sibling Model for Forecasting Chum Salmon and Sockeye Salmon Abundance, North American Journal of Fisheries Management 27: 634-642, 2007, Steven L. Haeseker, Brigitte Dorner, Randall Peterman and Zhenming Su, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University. (PDF, 698 KB)
  5. Retrospective Evaluation of Preseason Forecasting Models for Pink Salmon, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 25:897-918, 2005, Steven Haeseker, Randall Peterman and Zhenming Su, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University. (PDF, 400 KB)
  6. Pre-season Run Size Forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2009, Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Science Advisory Report 2009/022, Fisheries and Oceans Canada. (PDF, 332 KB)
  7. 2009 Fraser River Sockeye In-season Status Data, Pacific Salmon Commission. (PDF, 69 KB)
  8. Seasonal Stock-Specific Migrations of Juvenile Sockeye Salmon along the West Coast of North America: Implications for Growth, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 138:1458-1480, 2009, S. Tucker, Fisheries and Oceans Canada. (PDF, 2.2 MB)
  9. Article in the November 19 edition of The Economist
  10. BC Sockeye Salmon Population Declines: Probable Causes and Recommended Response Strategies, Prepared for the Sierra Club of Canada, BC Chapter, David Levy, February 2006. (PDF, 1.7 MB)
  11. Developing a mechanistic understanding of fish migrations by linking telemetry with physiology, behavior, genomics and experimental biology: an interdisciplinary case study on adult Fraser River sockeye salmon. Fisheries 33(7): 321-338 Cooke, S.J., Hinch, S.G., Farrell, A.P., Patterson, D.A., Miller-Saunders, K., Welch, D.W., Donaldson, M.R., Hanson, K.C., Crossin, G.T., Olsson, I., Cooperman, M.S., Hruska, K., Wagner, G.N., Thompson, R., English, K.K. (2008). (PDF, 1.4 MB)
  12. Bottom-up ecosystem trophic dynamics determine fish production in the Northeast Pacific. Science 308: 1280-1284 D. Ware and R. Thomson. 2005. (PDF, 539 KB)
  13. Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at see, and climate. 1955-2002. Deep Sea Research II 54, 2776-2793. Ruggerone, G.T., Nielsen, J.L. & Bumgarner, J. 2007. (PDF, 859 KB)
  14. Competition between Asian pink salmon (Onchorhynchus gorbuscha) and Alaskan sockeye salmon (O. nerka) in the North Pacific Ocean. Fisheries Oceanography 12, 209-219. Ruggerone, G.T. et al. 2003. (PDF, 307 KB)
  15. Linking marine and freshwater growth in western Alaska Chinook salmon Onchorhynchus tshawytscha. J.Fish Biology 75, 1287-1301. Ruggerone, G.T. et al. 2009. (PDF 553 KB)
  16. Canada's Policy for Conservation of Wild Pacific Salmon, Fisheries and Oceans Canada. June 2005. (PDF, 1MB)
  17. Freshwater for Fish and People: Moving Towards "Living Water Smart", Prepared for Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, July 2009, Nelitz, Mark. Tanis Douglas, Murray Rutherford. (PDF, 8.7 MB)
  18. Conference on Early Migration and Premature Mortality in Fraser River Late-Run Sockeye Salmon Proceedings, October 2009, Published by Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, Hinch, Scott. Julie Gardner. (PDF, 4.7 MB)
  19. What caused the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock collapse? Pre-publication report to the Pacific Fishery Management Council, Lindley, S.T., C.B. Grimes, M.S. Mohr, W. Peterson, J. Stein, J.T. Anderson, L.W. Botsford, D.L. Bottom, C.A. Busack, T.K. Collier, J. Ferguson, J.C. Garza, A. M. Grover, D.G. Hankin, R.G. Kope, P.W. Lawson, A. Low, R.B. MacFarlane, K. Moore, M. Palmer-Zwahlen, F.B. Schwing, J. Smith, C. Tracy, R. Webb, B.K. Wells, T. H. Williams. March 2009. (PDF, 6.8 MB)
  20. Appendix A: Assessment of factors relative to the status of the 2004 and 2005 broods of Sacramento River fall Chinook. Appendix to the pre-publication report to the Pacific Fishery Management Council. Lindley, S.T., C.B. Grimes, M.S. Mohr, W. Peterson, J. Stein, J.T. Anderson, L.W. Botsford, D.L. Bottom, C.A. Busack, T.K. Collier, J. Ferguson, J.C. Garza, A. M. Grover, D.G. Hankin, R.G. Kope, P.W. Lawson, A. Low, R.B. MacFarlane, K. Moore, M. Palmer-Zwahlen, F.B. Schwing, J. Smith, C. Tracy, R. Webb, B.K. Wells, T. H. Williams. March 2009. (PDF, 3.4 MB)
  21. NOAA website that tracks ocean ecosystem indicators
  22. State of physical biological and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems, Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document - 2009/022
  23. Freshwater and marine migration and survival of endangered Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) smolts using POST, a large-scale acoustic telemetry array. Can.J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 66: 736-750. 2009. David Welch, M. Melnychuk, E. Rechisky, A. Porter, M. Jacobs, A. Ladouceur, R.S. McKinley, G. Jackson. 2009.
  24. Are the migrations of juvenile and adult Fraser River sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) in near-shore waters related? Groot, C., K. Cooke., 1987. P. 53-60. In H.D Smith, L. Margolis, and C.C. Wood [ed.] Sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) population biology and future management. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 96
  25. Underyearling Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Estuary of the Fraser River, Birtwell, I.K., M.D. Nassichuk, H. Beune. 1987. p. 25-35. In H.D. Smith, L. Margolis, and C.C. Wood [ed.] Sockeye salmon (Onchorhynchus nerka) population biology and future management. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 96.


Part II

Part II is a free public lecture which took place on December 9, 2010, at 7:00 pm at SFU Vancouver Harbour Centre Campus, 515 West Hastings, Room 1400. A panel of scientists from the think tank will discuss their findings. (flyer, pdf, 522 kb)


Part III

Part III is a two-day public dialogue, Summit on Fraser River Sockeye Salmon: Understanding Stock Decline and Prospects for the Future, March 30–31, 2010 (registration info, pdf, 1.9 MB) at the Wosk Centre for Dialogue, SFU Vancouver. This dialogue will include panels and presentations offering the perspectives of the scientists’ think tank, industry, First Nations, government and civil society. Fee $200 plus GST.

Additional Resource Material:

  • Getting the Missing Fish Story Straight Series
    In 1995 Continuing Studies in Science (CSS) hosted Part I of Getting the Missing Fish Story Straight, to review the findings from the 1994 Fraser River Sockeye Review Board. A decade later, following the release of the 2004 Southern Salmon Fishery Post Season Review, a second town hall meeting was held in November 2005, “Getting the Missing Fish Story Straight: Part II – A Ten-Year Retrospective on Fraser Sockeye Salmon”.. The purpose of this event was to compare the reports and examine the differences and similarities of the findings and issues as well as to determine what factors have changed over the decade.

    In June of 2007 a third town hall meeting was convened, “Fraser Sockeye Salmon: Moving from Talk to Action. The purpose of this meeting was to identify what type of change in management of Fraser sockeye is needed and to determine what will catalyze this change.

    Proceedings from all three dialogues are available at:
    http://www.sfu.ca/cstudies/science/missingfish.htm

  • Speaking for the Salmon Series
    Since 1998, The Speaking for the Salmon series has been examining issues impacting the survival of wild salmon in British Columbia. Programs in the series include workshops, think tanks, proceedings and video presentations and have touched on issues such as climate change, hatcheries, aquaculture, nutrients, selective fishing policy, the Wild Salmon Policy, and others. For more information, visit: http://www.sfu.ca/cstudies/science/salmon.htm

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