Speaking for the

     Salmon

| Fisheries and Oceans Coho Response | SFU News Release |

© 1998 Speaking for the Salmon.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without permission.
ISBN 0-86491-187-4

Copies of the workshop proceedings are no longer available for order.

Table of Contents

Figures

Tables

Workshop Participants

Preface. Impressions
Ron MacLeod, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (retired)

Opening Remarks
Bob Brown, Institute of Fisheries Analysis, Simon Fraser University

Welcoming Address
Arnie Narcisse, BC Aboriginal Fisheries Commission

Salmon Stocks and Biodiversity
Rick Routledge, Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Institute of Fisheries Analysis, Simon Fraser University

Extinction Risk in British Columbia's Small Salmon Stocks
Tim Slaney, Aquatic Resources Limited

State of the Stocks and Habitat in the Nicola Valley Watershed
Arnie Narcisse, BC Aboriginal Fisheries Commission

The Thompson Coho Stocks
Fred Fortier, Shuswap Nation Fisheries Commission and BC Aboriginal Fisheries Commission

On the Fraser River Stocks and the Pacific Fisheries Conservation Council
Craig Orr, Fraser River Aboriginal Fisheries Secretariat

On the Thompson Coho
Ken Wilson, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Fraser River Aboriginal Fisheries Secretariat

Status of West Coast Vancouver Island Salmon and Steelhead
Don Hall, Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council

The Status of Squamish River Salmon and Steelhead Stocks
Peter Tyedmers, School of Resource Management and Environmental Studies, University of British Columbia

Nisga'a Fisheries Program. 1992-97 Sustainable Fisheries Management
Harry Nyce, Nisga'a Tribal Council

Address from the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, the Honourable David Anderson

Impacts of Changing Marine Survival Rates on Georgia Strait Coho and Chinook Salmon Stocks
Carl Walters, Department of Zoology and Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia

Effects of Environmental Conditions on Salmon Stocks: The 1997 Run of Early Stuart Sockeye Salmon
Steve Macdonald, Cooperative Resource Management Institute, Simon Fraser University and Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Black Creek Coho Salmon
Jim Irvine, Fraser River Coho and Chinook Stock Assessment Program, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station

Climate Change and Pacific Salmon
Kees Groot, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (retired)

Address from the Honourable John Fraser, Canada's Ambassador for theEnvironment

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Figures

Salmon Stocks and Biodiversity

Figure 1. Estimated Spawning Abundance for Horsefly Sockeye, Grouped by Four-Year Cycle

Figure 2. Columbia River Coho Abundance Estimates by Decade

Figure 3. Aggregate BC Coho Spawning Estimates by Region

Figure 4. Spawning Estimates for Upper Fraser Chinook at Tête Jaune Cache

Extinction Risk in British Columbia's Small Salmon Stocks

Figure 1. Size of Salmon Stocks Examined

Figure 2. Proportion of Stocks at High Risk by Size Category

The Thompson Coho Stocks

Figure 1. Summary of Cumulative Coho Rence Count Data from Thompson Basin Streams, 1984-1997

Figure 2. Escapement Summary of Adult Coho Returning to Thompson River Basin Tributaries

During the Fall of 1997

Salmon Stocks and Biodiversity

Figure 1. Estimated Spawning Abundance for Horsefly Sockeye, Grouped by Four-Year Cycle

Figure 2. Columbia River Coho Abundance Estimates by Decade

Figure 3. Aggregate BC Coho Spawning Estimates by Region

Figure 4. Spawning Estimates for Upper Fraser Chinook at Tête Jaune Cache

Extinction Risk in British Columbia's Small Salmon Stocks

Figure 1. Size of Salmon Stocks Examined

Figure 2. Proportion of Stocks at High Risk by Size Category

The Thompson Coho Stocks

Figure 1. Summary of Cumulative Coho Rence Count Data from Thompson Basin Streams, 1984-1997

Figure 2. Escapement Summary of Adult Coho Returning to Thompson River Basin Tributaries

During the Fall of 1997

On the Thompson Coho

Figure 1. Southern BC Coho Catch

Figure 2. Adams System Coho Escapements

Figure 3. Thompson Coho Escapement

Figure 4. Coho Smolt Survival

Nisga'a Fisheries Program 1992-1997 Sustainable Fisheries Management

Figure 1. Nisga'a Stock Assessment System

Figure 2. Nass Sockeye Run 1995

Figure 3. Nass Sockeye Run 1996

Figure 4. Nass Sockeye Run 1997: Major under-Escapement Detected in July

Figure 5. Nass Sockeye Run 1997

Figure 6. Nass Sockeye Returns, 1992-1997

Figure 7. Nass Sockeye: Verdict on 1992 Brood

Figure 8. Nass Chinook Returns

Figure 9. Nass Coho: Escapement Trends

Figure 10. Nass Coho. A Comparison of Canada and USA Marine Harvests

Figure 11. Nass Steelhead Results

Impact of Changing Marine Survival Rates on Georgia Strait Coho and Chinook Salmon Stocks

Figure 1. Trends in Marine Survival Rate for Georgia Strait Coho Stocks

Figure 2. Atlantic Salmon Recruit per Spawner Trends

Figure 3. Georgia Strait Chinook

Figure 4. Changes in Apparent Natural Survival Rates of Georgia Strait Chinook Salmon

Figure 5. Pacific Coast Coho Salmon: Exploitation Rate Leading to Extinction Given Typical

Maximum Smolt Production per Spawner

Figure 6. Sport Effort in the Georgia Strait

Figure 7. Georgia Strait Chinook- Exploitation Rates in Recent Years

Effects of Environmental Conditions on Salmon Stocks: The 1997 Run of Early Stuart Sockeye Salmon

Figure 1. Real Time Access. Data Loggers in the Fraser River Watershed, 1997 Black Creek Coho Salmon

Figure 1. Numbers of Adult Coho Returning to Black Creek (1997 Estimate Preliminary)

Figure 2. Annual Estimates of Numbers of 1+ Coho Smolts Leaving Black Creetk. Year to Sea is Brood Year +2 (1997 Estimate Preliminary)

Figure 3. Freshwater Survival (egg-to-smolt) for Black Creek Coho and Total Preciptiation During

July and August of the Year Following Spawning

Figure 4. Marine Survival (Smolt to Adult) of Black Creek Coho. Return Year = Brood Year +3

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Tables

Salmon Stocks and Biodiversity

Table 1. Sockeye Jack Returns

Extinction Risk in British Columbia's Small Salmon Stocks

Table 1. Summary of Status of British Columbia and Yukon Salmon and Trout Stocks by Species

Status of West Coast Vancouver Island Salmon and Steelhead

Table1. BC Stocks at Risk Analysis (SAR Evaluation Criteria)

Table 2. Quantitative Evaluation Criteria (NTC Additional Criteria)

Table 3. Comparison of Risk Classification for Selected WCVI Stocks

Table 4. Status of WCVI Salmon (NTC Risk Classification)

Status of WCVI Salmon (%) (NTC Risk Classification)

Status of WCVI Salmon (BCSAR Risk Assessment)

Status of WCVI Salmon (%) (BCSAR Risk Assessment)

The Status of Squamish River Salmon and Steelhead Stocks

Table 1. Squamish River Stocks Report Card

Effects of Environmental Conditions on Salmon Stocks: The 1997 Run of Early Stuart Sockeye Salmon

Table 1. Population Estimates of Early Stuart Sockeye Migration

Climate Change and Pacific Salmon

Table 1. Predicted Equilibrium Warming

Table 2. Assumption of the Timing of Warming: Scaled to Account for the Lag Induced by the Ocean

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PREFACE Impressions Ron MacLeod
Ron MacLeod is a former Director General of Fisheries Operations for the Pacific Region and Freshwater Fisheries, Department of Fisheries and Oceans. He designed and implemented the Salmonid Enhancement Program. The first Ron MacLeod Scholarship for Environmental Science at Simon Fraser University will be awarded in Spring 1998. The Speaking for the Salmon workshop was just that-a forum where people did speak for (on behalf of) the salmon rather than for (a share of) the salmon. A refreshing approach, except that by the end of the day the message was not all that exhilarating. The workshop previewed to some degree the role that the long awaited Pacific Fisheries Conservation Council may fill by giving opportunity to some community groups to report on conditions within their jurisdictions. The quality of the work undertaken by these groups was reflected in their excellent presentations, giving rise to the thought that DFO could go a long way to improving coastwide monitoring and protection capacity by involving more community groups in the action. Three themes struck me as dominant. One, the apparent dearth of coho stocks coupled to inadequate monitoring of stocks and habitats even for stocks known to be in crisis. Two, the status of salmon stocks beyond the Fraser and Skeena systems remains a question mark. Three, does it matter anyway? Within the range of territory reported on by participants, the level of escapement portends no good for the next generation of coho. Stream monitoring in the reported areas may be better than elsewhere, which explains why they were featured, but only of an order sufficient to sketch a rough outline of the dire state to which coho stocks have declined. The condition of freshwater habitats was not reported in any detail. This omission left unanswered serious questions about the degree to which reduced marine survival reported by several participants is a factor of ocean conditions, freshwater conditions or some combination of these and other factors. Regardless, unless sufficient spawners are put on productive grounds, the matter of ocean and freshwater survival is a moot point.		The status of all too many salmon stocks beyond the Fraser system is open to whatever interpretation one might want to put on the matter. The paucity of information is a void that sucks at the credibility of DFO. With the exception of the Nass and some west coast Vancouver Island salmon stocks, there is insufficient information available on which to make a rational judgment about the status of stocks and their habitats. The Central Coast, once called the Fish Basket, which is known to be under-monitored, was only mentioned in passing. Time available for discussion in a one day meeting precluded reference to many important coastal areas. Towards the tag-end of the day, the message about the potentially disastrous impact of global warming on salmon fisheries left one limp. The message was clear - unless carbon dioxide emissions world-wide are sooner reduced by 60%, the consequences for the fish are potentially of such severity that their very survival as a species may be at high risk (to say nothing about negative impacts on humans). Even more gloomy was the message that the greatest challenge of all may be to get the politicians into a room to hear the message, let alone, act. What does one do? Put on an optimistic face and gird for battle on two fronts, the global scene and the salmon scene, flashing the banner: a healthy fishery equates with clean water which in turn equates with a healthy society. Prudence, risk aversion and the precautionary principle argue for a total re-think of current fisheries resource management strategies. It seems evident that the old ways of conserving, protecting and utilizing fisheries resources have had their day. It is time to quit defending the past. It is urgent that we face up to an ominous future with all of the skills and creativity that we possess. Most importantly, it is essential that we put aside debates about whether inhospitable ocean conditions or degraded freshwater habitats or overfishing is the cause of current salmon population declines. The salmon's complex cycle of life is affected by each of those factors, plus many more, that act and interact with synergistic effect to determine for better or worse the salmon's future. For me, the over-riding message from the workshop is this: it's time to get serious and let's begin by taking a holistic approach to dealing with the problem.

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