According to the 2001 Census figures recently released by Statistics Canada, the population of GVRD is expected to reach 2.7 million by 2021. This represents a nearly whopping 29% increase over the estimated 2.1 million of 2002.

With ever increasing population in GVRD, our health care system is in high demand for improving its services and providing more facilities to those in need. To most of us, it's not new - media stories of a health care crisis highlighting tremendous pressures facing a system that simply is not fulfilling our ever growing demands.
The system is under tremendous and growing pressure.

We all require and use various types of health care services. However, studies show seniors are generally far more likely than those in younger age groups to be hospitalized. Seniors, for example, were three times more likely than those aged 45-64 to be hospitalized in 1998. Hospitalization rates also rise substantially among older seniors, with people aged 75 and over, who are 75% more likely to be hospitalized than those 65-74.

According to the 2001 Census population by age and gender data, the median age of the Greater Vancouver Regional District's population reached an all-time high of 37.5 in 2001, up from 35.5 in 1996.
Rising median age is one indicator clearly signifying that Greater Vancouver's population is aging.



Bearing this in mind, there is the Baby Boom generation, the many people born from 1946 - 66. It is crucial that the current health care facilities meet the needs of the baby boomer population. When the baby boomers turn 65 years old, it is no doubt that there will be a great demand of health care facilities if the current health care system is not prepared for the future aging population of baby boomers.

The rapid growth in the size of the senior population is also expected to continue well into the future. Statistics Canada has projected, for example, that by 2021 there will be almost 7 million seniors, who will represent 19% of the total population. By looking at the city of Vancouver alone, in 10 years, the number of Vancouver residents aged 65 and up is expected to jump by 11.4 per cent, from 71,873 to 80,061 according to Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation¡¯s statistics. It¡¯s a growth rate that¡¯s almost four per cent higher than the general population¡¯s-7.8 per cent.

Moreover, the life expectancy of Canadian seniors has risen substantially over the course of the last century. As of 1997, a 65-year-old person had an estimated remaining life expectancy of 18.3 years, roughly half a year more than in 1991, three years more than in 1971, and five years more than in 1921.


Subsequently, expanding population, aging population and longer life expectancy have a tremendous impact on health care needs that are likely to result in a greater demand for various types of health care services and a need for new hospital facilities in GVRD.

With all this information, it brought my attention to think of the current hospitals we now have in GVRD. Will the current number of hospitals be able to accommodate the fast growing and aging population of GVRD in the near future?

This project will focus on three central cities, Vancouver, Burnaby and New Westminster in which the great number of hospitals is observed compared to other cities. The hospital site selection through multi-critieria analysis will be performed for the purpose of this project.

On the whole, this project will conduct a geographical analysis to evaluate the spatial and geo-demographic information. The spatial distribution of mean age, population density, and average family income will be examined. This project will also look at the current locations of hospitals within the three cities in order to incorporate their patterns of distribution in the study area with other spatial information. As a result of GIS analysis, prospective hospital locations in Vancouver, Burnaby, and New Westminster will be proposed at the end.




Sources:

Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, http://www.statcan.ca/english/sdds/7505.htm
Greater Vancouver Regional District, http://www.gvrd.bc.ca
Province of British Columbia, http://www.gov.bc.ca/bvprd/bc/home.do
Statistics Canada, http://www.statcan.ca/start.html
The City of New Westminster Official Website, http://www.city.new-westminster.bc.ca/cityhall/planning/publications/OCPs/1_1.html
The City of Vancouver, http://www.city.vancouver.bc.ca/commsvcs/cityplans/region/cityandregionintro.htm