Spatial
Analysis
**
These two maps below are here in order to assist in the discussion of
different places in the Kamloops Forest Region in this discussion:
** The Black regions in the above image represent areas outside of the
Kamloops Forest Region.
1) Apple
Growing Suitability at Present vs Apple Growing Suitability in the
Future:
** 2nd image is Apple Growing Suitability in 2050.
VS Area
Comparison:
Suitable Apple Growing Areas at Present (8987 km^2) vs Anticipated
Suitable Apple Growing Areas (denoted as Apple Growing Suitability
Reclass) in 2050 (16898 km^2).
None of today's suitable apple-growing areas are anticipated to be
unsuitable in 2050.
Comments:
Why?
With the size of the suitable apple growing areas anticipated to
almost
double by 2050, climate change doesn't appear to be
such a bad thing for apple growers. Four out of the five climatic
variables will have larger areas favourable to apple growing in 2050
than today:
GDD (suitability=8) : 12253 km^2 (today) vs 28913 km^2
(2050) FFP (suitability=8):
5553 km^2 (today) vs 22687 km^2 (2050)
July Max Temperatures(suitability=8) : 9916 km^2(today) vs 14623
km^2(today) January Minimum Temperatures
(suitability>=6): 4079 km^2(today) vs 7819 km^2(2050)
Due to increasingly wet conditions, the area with the most suitable
precipitation (suitability=8) for apple growing is expected to
decrease from 43640 km^2 (today) to 29938
km^2 (2050). Precipitation makes up approximately 27% of the factor
weights for the
mce, which is why the decrease in areas with suitable precipitation
conditions isn't strong
enough to result in a decrease in total area. The increases in
the other
four
climatic variables are indicative of the general warming trend of the
climate.
Where?
Many of the valleys near Princeton (shown in the south-central part of
the map), currently not suitable places for growing apples, are
expected to become more
suitable places to grow apples in the future. More of the area
between Lytton and Lillooet and near Lilloeet (found near the
south-west part of the map) will
become more suitable for growing apples in the future. The
currently suitable areas for apple growing in the Similikameen (south
central part), Okanogan (wide and long
patch in south-central part of map), the Thompson Valley (horizontal
swath across centre of map), and the Fraser Valley between Cache Creek
and Ashcroft (vertical swath
cutting down from west end of Thompson Valley) will continue to be good
areas for apple growth.
2) Wine Grape
Growing Suitability At Present Vs Wine Grape Growing Suitability in
2050:
VS Area Comparison:
At present, there are only 2624 km^2 where wine grapes can be
grown. In 2050, an anticipated 8618 km^2 are expected to be added
to this suitable area, making the total
suitability area 11242 km^2 for wine grape growing in 2050. This
is more than a four-fold increase. None of today's suitable wine-grape
growing areas are expected to
become unsuitable by 2050.
Comments:
How? As is the
case for apple growers, the areas with the best
conditions are expected to increase for four of the five climatic
variables:
GDD (Suitability=8): 4026 km^2 (today) vs 23547 km^2 (2050)
FFP
(Suitability=8): 5553 km^2 (today) vs 17314 km^2 (2050)
July Max Temperatures (Suitability = 8): 1745 km^2 (today) vs 4887 km^2
(2050) January Minimum Temperatures (Suitability>=6): 0
km^2 (today) vs 8485 km^2 (2050)
Precipitation is the only climatic variable in which areas with
favourable conditions (suitability=8) will decrease (from 7459 km^2 to
4887 km^2)
The increases in areas with good july temperatures and long frost-free
periods (both weighted at 0.3200) play a significant role in the
increase in the size of the suitable areas.
The decrease in the areas with good precipitation conditions does not
result in a significant decrease in the suitable areas because the
factor weight for precipitation is only
0.1600.
Where?
By 2050, the north Okanogan valley (from Vernon to Salmon Arm) (see the
thick swath in the central part of the screen) will be able to produce
fine wines for
high-class drinkers everywhere. The areas near Barriere and Louis
Creek (see the slightly wide swath north of the Thompson Valley) will
also become a suitable
area for wine-growing (good news considering the forestry part of the
economy there hasn't been doing well!). The area between Lytton and
Lilloett is also expected
to become a suitable wine-producing region. The present suitable
regions of the Okanogan, Similikameen, and Thompson Valleys, as well as
the bunchgrass region
just north of Lilloett, will continue to have good wine-growing
conditions into the future.
3) Apple Growing Suitability at Present
vs Wine-Grape Suitable at Present:
VS Area Comparison:
The current area suitable for apples is 8987 km^2, whereas the area
suitable for wine grapes is 2624 km^2. Apples can be grown in
every area in which wine grapes can be
grown, but there are 6,363 km^2 where apples can be grown but not wine
grapes.
How?
The Golden and Red Delicious apples in British Columbia are said to
have less stringent climatic requirements than the wine grapes in
British Columbia and
this is definitely reflected in this analysis. In every area
where wine grapes can be grown, apples can be grown as well.
Summer maximum temperatures
appear to be major contributors to this difference, with 9916 km^2 of
area having suitable conditions for apples, but only 1745 km^2 being
suitable for wine grapes.
July maximum temperature is a more important factor for wine-grape
growing (factor weighting = 0.3200) than it is for apple-growing
(factor weighting=0.1300) and the
type of wine grapes growing in British Columbia need average high
temperatures of at least 30 degrees celsius for optimal conditions
(only the south Okanogan valley, the
Thompson Valley, and the areas near Lillooet and Lytton fulfill this
requirement). In addition, wine grapes require longer frost-free
periods and more growing degree days than
apples. Further compounding the limitations of wine grape versus
apples are the more stringent precipitation requirements of wine grapes
(250 to 400 mm is ideal) versus
apples (300 to 600 mm is ideal).
Where? The
north Okanogan valley has suitable conditions for
growing apples, but not for wine grapes. This is because the
north Okanogan valley has some areas which
receive over 400 mm of precipitation a year (the only part of the north
Okanogan valley that doesn't is Vernon) and because july maximum highs
in this area are generally
between 26 and 29 degrees celsius (great for apples, but not that great
for wine grapes). The area between Lilloett and Lytton is also
better for apple production than
for wine grape production because it doesn't have enough frost-free
days for good wine-grape production, but it does have enough frost-free
days for good apple
production. The area between Kamloops and Barriere doesn't have
enough Growing Degree Days and frost-free days for wine grapes, but
there are enough
growing degree days and frost-free days for apples.
4) Apple-Growing
Suitability in 2050 vs Wine-Grape Growing Suitability in 2050:
Vs Area Comparison:
In 2050, the areas where wine grapes
will be able to be grown will be approximately 11242 km^2, which is a
major increase, but the area suitability for apple growing
will also increase significantly, to 16898 km^2. All of the areas
where wine grapes will be able to be grown will also be suitable for
apples. However, 5,656 km^2 where
apples will be a suitable crop will not be suitable for wine grape
growing.
How? The increase in summer
time highs will allow wine grapes to
expand into many new areas where only apples were suitable
before. At the same time,
the increase in the lengths of the frost-free periods and winter
temperatures will allow apples to go into new areas. Some of
these new areas are not areas of high summer
temperatures, so conditions will not be good for wine grapes
there. In other parts, precipitation will be within the 'best'
range for apples, but not for wine grapes.
Where? Extensive parts of
the valley between Princeton and
Merritt (the swath in the south, slightly west of central part of the
screen) will be good for apple-growing but not
for wine growing. Some of the lowest valleys near the
Coquihalla
highway (between Merritt and Hope) and near the range between the
Transcanada Highway and Lillooett will
become warm enough for apple growing, but not for wine-grape
growing. Some of the higher valleys near the Thompson valley
(north part of screen), formerly handicapped by
short frost-free periods and cold winters, will now long enough
frost-free periods and warm enough winters to accommodate apple-growing
but not wine-grape growing.
4) Areas Where Both
Apples and Grapes Can Be Grown at Present vs Areas Where Both Apples
and Grapes Can Be Grown in 2050:
Results: There is a
significant increase in the area available for farmers who wish to grow
both apples and wine grapes on the same
farm in comparison in 2050 compared to present. In particular,
the north Okanogan and the areas north of the Thompson Valley are
expected to
become suitable for both wine-grape and apple production in 2050.
Conclusion:
From the analysis of climatic factors
for wine grape and apple growing in British Columbia, it appears as if
global warming isn't going to be a foe of wine-grape
growers and apple growers in British Columbia. Although the
increased precipitation might result in more diseases (such as apple
scab) that affect
wine grapes and apples, the increased summer temperatures, the
increased frost-free days, and the increased growing degree days should
help
give grape vines and apple trees increased vigour to be more productive
and to expand into new areas.
Increased winter temperatures should also help wine
grape and apple-growing areas expand because they will increase the
areas available with
`tolerable winter conditions`. It is important to keep in mind,
however, that although the increases in the areas where wine grapes and
apples will
be able to be grown is expected to be significant, the majority of the
Kamloops Forest Region will still not be suitable for wine grape and
apple-growing.
In particular, wine grape growing and its strict climatic requirements
will still continue to limit its suitability area in the
Okanogan.
Though this model has some predictive power in terms
of climate and its potential agricultural impacts, there are still many
other details that must be
explored. Population growth might result in increased pollution
in the Okanogan Valley near Kelowna, resulting in a decreased
suitability
for wine grape and apple growing. In addition, soil changes and
changes in land use may affect the areas available for wine grape and
apple growing.
Even if an area is suitable for wine grape growing and/or apple
growing, if there is another 'preferrable' use for the area, that area
might
not be used for wine grape and/or apple growing:
** The first map is current apple growing areas in the Kamloops Forest
Region:
** The Second Image is current areas suitable for apple-growing in the
Kamloops Forest Region:
Although much of the Thompson Valley, the areas near Lillooet, the
areas near Lytton, and the areas near the Nicola Valley appear to be
climatically amenable
to apple production at present, they are not being used at present (as
indicated in the first image). Why? The Thompson Valley is also a
very good area
for cattle grazing due to its abundance of dry, grassy land, so, land
that could be used for apple-growing is being used for cattle ranching
instead. Near
Lillooet, ginseng is the popular crop of choice and areas that could
grow apples are being used to grow ginseng. In the Nicola Valley,
cattle ranching is more
popular than apple growing. Near Lytton, the climatic conditions
are good, but Lytton is an area with very steep slopes and that might
be a factor
as to why apples aren't grown there.
** The third image is an image of where grapes are currently grown in
the province:
** The fourth image is an image of areas where wine grapes could be
grown at present:
The Thompson Valley and the Lillooet area appear to
have good climatic conditions for grape growing at present, but they
are not being utilized
for grape-growing at present. Again, cattle-ranching takes
precedence over other forms of agriculture in the Thompson Valley and
ginseng is the crop
of choice in Lillooet, which explains why these areas might not be
being used for wine grape growing.
In conclusion, global warming isn't necessarily bad
for all crops and might, in fact, increase the areas available for
crop-growing in the Kamloops Forest Region.
More spatial studies need to be done on other factors in order to
develop a more comprehensive model for anticipated changes in the areas
that will be suitable and available for wine-grape and apple growing in
the Kamloops Forest Region in British Columiba
Information about British Columbian areas and
communities from:
1) BC Travel Site (www.bctravel.com)
2) World Book Encyclopedia entry on
British Columbia (Published by World Book Inc. in 1991).
3) Kamloops Forest Region Handbook.
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