Simon Fraser University
Engaging the World

Course Outlines

Spring 2026 - REM 325 D100

Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Analysis (3)

Class Number: 4007

Delivery Method: In Person

Overview

  • Course Times + Location:

    Jan 5 – Apr 10, 2026: Tue, 10:30 a.m.–12:20 p.m.
    Burnaby

  • Prerequisites:

    45 units. Recommended: REM 225 or STAT 201 or STAT 203 or STAT 205 or GEOG 251 or equivalent.

Description

CALENDAR DESCRIPTION:

Provides a broad, yet practical, perspective on uncertainty and risk that can be used to improve decision-making abilities in a wide range of settings. Quantitative decision analysis provides a formal approach to accounting for uncertainty in resource and environmental management decision-making.

COURSE DETAILS:

Environmental decision-makers need to make explicit choices about regulating harmful activities, developing resources, and investing in restoration to meet biological, social and economic objectives across a broad range of stakeholder values. Decisions can be made via ad hoc approaches, usually in response to problems and conflicts as they arise, or by applying the formalism of structured decision-making that anticipates potential problems by explicitly considering objectives, alternative actions, uncertainties, and risks. 

COURSE-LEVEL EDUCATIONAL GOALS:

Upon completing Uncertainty, Risk, and Decision Analysis, students will have improved their thinking and decision-making skills in situations involving uncertainty and risk. Specific Learning Objectives in an environmental context include: 

A. Uncertainty:
    1. Identify and describe potential types and sources of uncertainty
    2. Quantify uncertainty using Bayesian statistic

B. Risk:
    1. Explain how uncertainty can create both risks and opportunities
    2. Describe the four stages of risk analysis: perception, assessment, management, and communication
    3. Explain the precautionary principle and the precautionary approach
    4. Identify risk prone and risk averse behavioural type

C. Decision Analysis:
  1. Describe common decision traps
  2. Construct simple quantitative decision analyses in MS Excel
  3. Identify situations when taking uncertainty into account matters
  4. Describe decision concepts including: mini-max/maxi-min decisions, value of information, Monte Carlo simulation, fragility/anti-fragility, and tail risks in environmental management

Grading

  • Tutorial assignments 30%
  • Project assignments 40%
  • Term project (20) and presentation (10) 30%

Materials

MATERIALS + SUPPLIES:

All students will require a laptop in classes and tutorials. The SFU library has free, 4-hr loans of laptops:

  • https://www.lib.sfu.ca/borrow/borrow-materials/laptops-equipment/borrow-laptop.
  • NOTE: The campus-wide demand for library laptops is high and the library often runs out quickly. If you need to use the library laptops, you should show-up early at the library check-out desk.
MS Excel installed on laptop prior to the first class

REQUIRED READING:

REM 325 uses a textbook aimed at a general introduction to decision-making and policy analysis under uncertainty.

Required: Morgan, G. and M. Henrion. 1990. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 332 pp. A digital version of the text can accessed through the SFU library.

Conroy, M. J., & Peterson, J. T. (2013). Decision making in natural resource management: a structured, adaptive approach. John Wiley & Sons.

REQUIRED READING NOTES:

Your personalized Course Material list, including digital and physical textbooks, are available through the SFU Bookstore website by simply entering your Computing ID at: shop.sfu.ca/course-materials/my-personalized-course-materials.

Registrar Notes:

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY: YOUR WORK, YOUR SUCCESS

At SFU, you are expected to act honestly and responsibly in all your academic work. Cheating, plagiarism, or any other form of academic dishonesty harms your own learning, undermines the efforts of your classmates who pursue their studies honestly, and goes against the core values of the university.

To learn more about the academic disciplinary process and relevant academic supports, visit: 


RELIGIOUS ACCOMMODATION

Students with a faith background who may need accommodations during the term are encouraged to assess their needs as soon as possible and review the Multifaith religious accommodations website. The page outlines ways they begin working toward an accommodation and ensure solutions can be reached in a timely fashion.