SFU’s John Clague doesn’t put much stalk in a new study warning that the Tokyo region has a 70 per cent chance of being hit directly by a powerful earthquake within four years. Commenting on the authors’ prediction of the likelihood rising to 98 per cent within 30 years, the earth sciences professor and expert on earthquakes says: “A 98 per cent probability is, in my opinion, alarmist. Foreshock sequences are not particularly good indicators of a major earthquake at a particular location. I wonder how much these seismologists have been influenced by the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake fallout?”

John Clague, 778.782.4924, 604.921.9904 (h), jclague@sfu.ca