issues and experts

Post-election experts re B.C. Liberal win

May 15, 2013
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  • SFU public policy prof Doug McArthur can provide comment on what led to last night’s unanticipated Liberal majority win. “It can be explained easily,” he says.
  • Meanwhile political science prof Marjorie Cohen cites a combination of things that may have led to the result, including: the Green vote spoiling an NDP win in a few crucial ridings; the collapse of the Conservative party giving the right nowhere to go but the Liberals; the NDP's 'one practical step at a time' was not inspiring enough to pump up the NDP vote, while Christy Clark’s attack ads were “very effective”; and very low voter turnout (52 per cent of eligible voters) which may have affected NDP turnout. 
  • SFU economist Anke Kessler, whose earlier research focused on the impact of robo-calling on elections, can also comment on the relevance of polls. "Seeing what happened in Alberta (where the polls got it wrong too), I would say there must be something systematically wrong with how polls are being conducted and corrected for. Something must have changed, that the pollsters aren't accounting for yet."
  • And note that SFU political scientist and polling expert Mark Pickup is away and will be travelling until Friday.

Doug McArthur, 778.782.5208; doug_mcarthur@sfu.ca
Marjorie Cohen, 604.294.2134; mcohen@sfu.ca
Anke Kessler (reachable by email today, akessler@sfu.ca)
Mark Pickup (after Friday though still away) mark_pickup@sfu.ca

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