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Marginal Seats in 2006 Canadian Election

Some of the more interesting local contests in the 2006 elections were the marginal seats, where the winning candidates in the previous election only won with very slim margins of victory.  In the 2004 general elections, 58 candidates won their seats with a margin of 5% or less over the second placed candidate in their ridings. It took very little movement among the voters for these seats to change hands.

The Liberals and Conservatives led the other parties in the number of marginal seats held going into the 2006:

  • Conservatives: 25
  • Liberals: 24
  • NDP: 7
  • BQ: 2

The NDP did the best overall in these marginal seats.  They managed to hold all their original marginal seats and pick up 8 more from the other parties in the 2006 election.  The Liberals did the worst, losing 19 of the 25 marginal seats they held going into the 2006 election; they only picked up 3 seats from the other parties in return.

 

2006 Success of Parties in Marginal Seats Won with 5% or less in 2004
  BQ CON LIB NDP
Won in 2004 2 25 24 7
Held in 2006 2 19 5 7
Lost in 2006 - 6 19 -
Gained in 2006 6 8 3 8
Net seats in 2006 8 27 8 15
Net Gain/Loss
  2004 to 2006		  +6 +2 -16 +8

 

 

Seats Won by 5% or Less Margin in the 2004 Election

Province District Candidate Winning Party 2nd Party % Votes Won #/% Votes Margin 2006 Winner
QUE Jeanne-Le Ber Liza Frulla  LIB BQ 41.1 72 / 0.2 BQ
ONT Simcoe--Grey Helena Guergis  CON LIB 40.6 100 / 0.2 CON
BC New Westminster--Coquitlam Paul Forseth  CON NDP 32.9 113 / 0.2 NDP
ONT Middlesex--Kent--Lambton Rose-Marie Ur  LIB CON 39.7 164 / 0.3 CON
ALTA Edmonton--Beaumont David Kilgour  LIB CON 42.8 134 / 0.3 CON
NWT Western Arctic Ethel Blondin-Andrew  LIB NDP 39.5 53 / 0.4 NDP
ONT Cambridge Gary Goodyear CON LIB 37.1 224 / 0.4 CON
SASK Palliser Dave Batters  CON NDP 35.9 124 / 0.4 CON
SASK Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre Tom Lukiwski  CON LIB 33.2 122 / 0.4 CON
ONT Northumberland--Quinte West Paul Macklin LIB CON 39.9 313 / 0.5 CON
MAN Kildonan--St. Paul Joy Smith  CON LIB 37.3 278 / 0.8 CON
BC Burnaby--New Westminster Peter Julian  NDP LIB 33.7 329 / 0.8 NDP
ONT Chatham-Kent--Essex Jerry Pickard  LIB CON 39.6 407 / 0.9 CON
BC Vancouver Island North John Duncan  CON NDP 35.4 483 / 0.9 NDP
ONT Oshawa Colin Carrie  CON NDP 33.2 463 / 1.0 CON
QUE Papineau Pierre Pettigrew  LIB BQ 41.1 468 / 1.1 BQ
SASK Saskatoon--Humboldt Bradley R. Trost  CON NDP 26.8 417 / 1.2 CON
ONT Newmarket--Aurora Belinda Stronach  CON LIB 42.4 689 / 1.3 LIB
ONT Niagara West--Glanbrook Dean Allison  CON LIB 40.3 664 / 1.3 CON
BC Newton--North Delta Gurmant Grewal  CON LIB 32.8 520 / 1.3 LIB
ALTA Edmonton Centre Anne McLellan  LIB CON 42.5 721 / 1.4 CON
ONT Trinity--Spadina Tony Ianno  LIB NDP 43.6 805 / 1.5 NDP
BC Southern Interior Jim Gouk  CON NDP 36.6 680 / 1.5 NDP
ONT Essex Jeff Watson  CON LIB 36.6 829 / 1.6 CON
MAN Charleswood--St. James Steven John Fletcher CON LIB 44.3 734 / 1.7 CON
ONT Sault Ste. Marie Tony Martin  NDP LIB 38.3 752 / 1.7 NDP
QUE Gatineau Françoise Boivin  LIB BQ 42.1 830 / 1.8 BQ
ONT Timmins--James Bay Charlie Angus NDP LIB 41.5 613 / 1.8 NDP
ONT Hamilton East--Stoney Creek Tony Valeri  LIB NDP 37.7 927 / 1.9 NDP
ONT Hamilton Mountain Beth Phinney  LIB NDP 34.8 996 / 1.9 NDP
QUE Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Robert Bouchard  BQ LIB 45.3 863 / 1.9 BQ
BC Burnaby--Douglas Bill Siksay  NDP LIB 34.6 934 / 2.1 NDP
QUE Nunavik--Eeyou Yvon Lévesque  BQ LIB 45.2 572 / 2.1 BQ
ONT Niagara Falls Rob Nicholson  CON LIB 38.7 1137 / 2.2 CON
QUE Brome--Missisquoi Denis Paradis  LIB BQ 42.1 1072 / 2.4 BQ
ONT Ottawa West--Nepean Marlene Catterall  LIB CON 41.8 1380 / 2.4 CON
NS Halifax Alexa McDonough  NDP LIB 41.6 1074 / 2.4 NDP
QUE Ahuntsic Eleni Bakopanos  LIB BQ 43.8 1214 / 2.5 BQ
ONT Clarington--Scugog--Uxbridge Bev Oda  CON LIB 40.7 1265 / 2.5 CON
ONT Barrie Aileen Carroll  LIB CON 42.7 1295 / 2.6 CON
BC West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast John Reynolds  CON LIB 35.3 1687 / 2.8 LIB
SASK Regina--Qu'Appelle Andrew Scheer  CONS NDP 35.8 861 / 3.1 CON
BC Vancouver Kingsway David Emerson  LIB NDP 40.4 1351 / 3.2 LIB
ONT Haldimand--Norfolk Diane Finley  CONS LIB 42.2 1645 / 3.3 CON
BC Skeena--Bulkley Valley Nathan Cullen . NDP CONS 37.1 1272 / 3.4 NDP
BC North Vancouver Don H. Bell  LIB CONS 40.0 2071 / 3.7 LIB
ONT Dufferin--Caledon David Tilson  CON LIB 42.8 1713 / 3.8 CON
BC Victoria David Anderson  LIB NDP 35.0 2305 / 4.0 NDP
ONT Kenora Roger Valley  LIB NDP 36.2 986 / 4.2 LIB
NFLD St. John's South Loyola Hearn  CON LIB 39.6 1451 / 4.3 CON
ONT Wellington--Halton Hills Mike Chong  CON LIB 42.8 2306 / 4.6 CON
ONT Ottawa--Orléans Marc Godbout  LIB CON 45.0 2728 / 4.7 CON
BC Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca Keith Martin  LIB NDP 35.3 2568 / 4.7 LIB
NFLD St. John's North Norman E Doyle  CON LIB 41.4 1730 / 4.8 CON
ONT Prince Edward--Hastings Daryl Kramp  CON LIB 42.4 2556 / 4.8 CON
QUE Brossard--La Prairie Jacques Saada  LIB BQ 45.9 2559 / 4.9 BQ
ONT Brant Lloyd St. Amand  LIB CON 38.1 2663 / 5.0 LIB
ONT Toronto--Danforth Jack Layton  NDP LIB 46.3 2395 / 5.0 NDP
 

Source: Elections Canada

Note: In Newmarket--Aurora, Belinda Stronach won the seat for the Conservatives in 2004 and won it again, for the Liberals, in 2006.

Note: The following ridings had a name change between the 2004 and 2006 elections:

  • Clarington--Scugog--Uxbridge became Durham
  • Edmonton--Beaumont became Edmonton--Mill Woods--Beaumont
  • Middlesex--Kent--Lambton became Lambton--Kent--Middlesex
  • Nunavik--Eeyou became Abitibi — Baie-James — Nunavik — Eeyou
  • St. John's North became St. John’s East

 

 

 

 

I welcome any feedback and suggestions for fresh material to add to this site -

Andrew Heard
Political Science Department  --  Simon Fraser university