Overview

Description

CALENDAR DESCRIPTION:

Use of quantitative methods of risk assessment and decision analysis to explicitly take uncertainty into account when making decisions in management of natural resources. Methods of quantifying uncertainty and the resulting risks. Examples from management of forests, wildlife, fisheries, water resources, energy, and toxic chemicals. Communicating information about uncertainties and the resulting risks to resource managers, the public, and scientists. Advantages and limitations of various quantitative methods. Includes computer laboratories.

COURSE DETAILS:

Environmental decision-makers need to make explicit choices about regulating harmful activities, developing resources, and investing in restoration to meet biological, social and economic objectives across a broad range of stakeholder values. Decisions can be made via ad hoc approaches, usually in response to problems and conflicts as they arise, or by applying the formalism of structured decision-making that anticipates potential problems by explicitly considering objectives, alternative actions, uncertainties, and risks.

There are no formal prerequisites for this course. Students need to have reasonably good understanding of basic statistics, Excel spreadsheets, and various types of graphs. REM 625 is not a course in Bayesian statistics, although we develop and work with some low-dimensional Bayesian estimation procedures. More quantitative courses in REM introduce multi-parameter models and simulation-based methods for Bayesian estimation.

Course format: Synchronous seminars.

Outline of Topics
The following provides a general outline of topics, not a weekly schedule of classes (that will be presented in detailed Course Outline).
  1) Environmental risk assessment: what is it and why do we need it?
  2) Uncertainty in natural resource systems – sources and management implications
  3) Approaches to decision-making in resource management
  4) Decision analysis in 8 steps
  5) Describing and quantifying uncertainty
  6) Bayes Theorem and computation
  7) Advanced topics in decision analysis
  8) The value of information and reducing uncertainty
  9) Risk and uncertainty communication
10) Benefits and limitations of quantitative methods of decision making

COURSE-LEVEL EDUCATIONAL GOALS:

REM 625 introduces risk assessment and decision analysis concepts and techniques by covering a broad range of examples, including (1) conservation of birds, large mammals, and fishes, (2) air and water quality, (3) pest control, (4) toxic chemicals, (5) forest and wildlife management, (6) land use, (7) water-use planning, (8) fisheries management, and (9) monitoring program design.

Class discussions and lectures provide students with a broad perspective on risk assessment and structured decision-making approaches, while hands-on computer labs and assignments provide practical experience applying quantitative methods to realistic decision problems. After completing REM 625, students will be able to:
   1. Describe primary sources of uncertainty in environmental systems and management;
   2. Explain how uncertainty contributes to risk for environmental management;
   3. Quantify uncertainties using Bayesian statistics;
   4. Use quantitative decision analysis to rank alternative management actions while taking uncertainties into account;
   5. Apply sensitivity analyses to evaluate robustness of decisions;
   6. Set research priorities by estimating the value of future research and monitoring information;
   7. Assess the advantages and limitations of quantitative decision methods;
   8. Communicate uncertainties and risks to scientific and non-scientific audiences.

Grading

Materials

MATERIALS + SUPPLIES:

2. MS Excel installed on laptop prior to the first class

REQUIRED READING: