Re: NYTimes article on the uncertainty around long covid and vaccinated people

- The data report doesn't provide key information (current effective reproduction rate/doubling rate, for instance). This is, of course, the more important metric to track during exponential growth: the raw case counts in the beginning may seem small, but a reproduction rate >1 is a bad thing. Nor is the Delta variant incidence being differentially reported. Reports which don't present this information aren't adding to confidence = the phrase 'now we're seeing exponential growth' as publicly deployed is kinda too late. As a nice illustration of this issue, perhaps look at the surveillance report from August 27th, 2020. Raw numbers seemed low, but the rate of growth (not reported, needed to be computed) was already concerning. http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_Aug_27_2020.pdf

- To round off the data with model fits and projections seems important, and the BCCDC used to release monthly modeling updates. including work of many scientists in BC. The last one was June 28th.

http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/modelling-projections

The BC Covid modeling group has a more recent modeling update (August 18th).

https://bccovid-19group.ca/post/2021-08-18-report/slides.pdf

On Sun, Aug 22, 2021 at 3:36 AM Igor Herbut <igor_herbut@sfu.ca> wrote:

Dear Cynthia and colleagues,

I do not know what Bonnie Henry is thinking, but my guess is that she is certainly following ALL the COVID numbers relevant to BC. They can be found at the BC CDC official site:

http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data#Situationreport

or, in less detail, but still informative at

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-british-columbia-charts-1.5510000

It is clear from the charts that: 1) population 21-30 is also rapidly vaccinating, and their vaccination rates could soon reach those of older cohorts (which are among the highest in the world), 2) hospitalizations and ICU cases are dramatically lower this time, 3) the death rate has been stable at essentially zero value (below one/day).

Bonnie Henry is also not alone in keeping calm; very careful Denmark, with similar case numbers and vaccination rates to BC, which has been celebrated (and often contrasted to the lax Sweden) by the papers such as NYT in the past for her success against Covid by using various restrictions, is now lifting almost all of them:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-denmark-removes-last-of-its-obligatory-mask-rules-2509641

Cheers,

Igor Herbut.

From: Cynthia Patton <cindy_patton@sfu.ca>
Sent: Saturday, August 21, 2021 4:03 PM
To: Chelsea Rosenthal; academic-discussion@sfu.ca
Subject: Re: NYTimes article on the uncertainty around long covid and vaccinated people

You can also find the reporting on the US clusters in the NYT app they are listed by type of venue and the data is about a month "old" (pre-Delta onslaught).

Colleges and prisons in the US have both exceeded elder care places in sheer number. The prison death rate are not that far off the elder care death rate. Colleges' have fewer deaths, but massive numbers . . . about 100 schools with between 1600 and 9000 (U Florida Gainsville is the current winner with 9914 cases). Add these kind of numbers and the uncertainty about long term effects of mild cases and "breakthrough" cases and YIKES.

What is Dr. "Let 'er rip" Bonnie thinking??? And Dr. "Our hands are tied by Bonnie" JJ????

From: Chelsea Rosenthal <chelsea_rosenthal@sfu.ca>
Sent: August 21, 2021 3:11:44 PM
To: academic-discussion@sfu.ca
Subject: NYTimes article on the uncertainty around long covid and vaccinated people

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well/live/vaccine-long-covid-breakthrough-infection.html

Can the Vaccinated Develop Long Covid After a Breakthrough Infection? - The New York Times

www.nytimes.com

While the vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness and death, the risk of developing post-Covid health problems after a breakthrough infection isn’t known.