RECENT IMMIGRANTS AND UNDERCLASS


POPULATION IN CANADIAN CITIES


SPATIAL ANALYSIS

The maps (shown below) and the least squares models developed unearth significant characteristics of recent immigrants. Firstly, all  three cities show similar pattern of recent immigrant characteristics as regards education, low income economic families, government transfer payments and persons without income. While all three cities have their highest coefficient of determination among the regression models as that for low income economic families, both Montreal and Toronto have their lowest coefficient of determination among the least squares models as that for education level. Population of 15 years and more without income is the second highest correlate with recent immigrant population for the three cities. This is a tremendous trend that the social influences that shape recent immigrant attributes do not change and recent immigrant characteristics might be common in the three cities.
In each city, the suites of socio-economic variables are more significant in their covariation with the incidence of low-income economic families than the ethno cultural set. The incidence of female-led families, male unemployment, and government transfer payments supply the strongest correlations; interestingly, failure to complete high school does not figure as prominently. It is not difficult to establish causal arguments linking poverty and these factors -- though presumably in most accounts the level of transfer payments would feature as an effect rather than a cause of poverty (Ley, D and Smith, H 1998).

Secondly, though all three cities exhibit similar patterns, the impact of recent immigrant population would be more significant in different cities. Impact of low income economic families for instance, rose from 1996 to 2001 in Montreal and Vancouver but decline in Toronto with Vancouver experiencing the highest percentage change, almost double in 2001. Toronto revealed quite a consistent and a distinct trend with the socio-economic variables chosen while Montreal and Vancouver are more radical towards the variables. These relationships necessitate a further statistical analysis to disclose how selected variables combine in defining poverty in a census tract.

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Conceptual idea       Introduction        Project Design        Conclusions

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