West Nile Virus Risk Analysis for the City of Burnaby

Introduction

(Picture source: National Wildlife Health Center, USGS)

According to Health Canada, “West Nile (WN) virus is a mosquito-borne virus. Mosquitoes transmit the virus after becoming infected by feeding on the blood of birds which carry the virus. In Canada, the virus was first confirmed in birds in Ontario in 2001 and the first human case of WN virus was confirmed in Ontario in September 2002”.

According to USGS, “83 human cases of West Nile illness were reported; 9 died in year 1999 and 2000 in the United States”, our closest neighbour. “In 2001, human infection with WNV occurred in 10 states with 66 cases and 9 deaths. In 2002, WNV activity spread to 44 states, with 4,156 human cases and 284 deaths”.

(Picture source: Environmental Risk Analysis Program, Cornell University)

The situation in Canada is no better. Canada had its first confirmed human cases in 2002, after people tested positive for West Nile virus in parts of Quebec and Ontario. The virus was also found in birds, horses or mosquitoes in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. It is on its way to the west coast and has “invaded” Alberta with 269 people infected in 2003. Moreover, according to West Nile Virus Monitor, as of November 21, 2003, number of probable human cases and confirmed human cases are 843 cases and 463 cases while 10 confirmed deaths recorded in which 2 were from Ontario, 2 were from Manitoba and 6 were from Saskatchewan. Nevertheless, 12 confirmed human cases of West Nile virus are recorded this year in British Columbia as of November 21, 2003. Please check for the lists of dead birds reported and the mapped distribution of confirmed and non-confirmed West Nile virus cases in Canada for the past few years provided by Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre.

Dead Birds Submitted for West Nile Virus Diagnosis as of December 16, 2002. Click on the image for a bigger map.

(Picture Source: West Nile Virus Bird Surveillance)

As discussed above West Nile virus will soon be a problem in the Lower Mainland, and the City of Burnaby is very interested in determining the risk to their residents and identifying areas that are mosquito breeding grounds (e.g. areas of stagnant water) for potential insecticide application.

Since GIS are powerful tools that make spatial analysis possible, I would like to attempt to do a risk analysis of West Nile Virus for the City of Burnaby. Different modeling ideas are drawn from different sources. The list of the references that focuses on West Nile Virus Risk Analysis can be found in the References page.

Please move on to Outline section for further detail on how the analysis can be generated.

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This site is created by Jimmy Man Ching YIP for GEOG 355 2003-3.