This section includes all the analysis of the manipulated data from the previous section, the data are presented in both spreadsheet format and html format. All the figures in this page are created with ArcView and using screen dump to copy (the format was changed from bmp to jpg, therefore the quality is lower). Analysis will be carried in the following order:
1. Population Change
from 1991 to 1996
2. Population Change
of the 15-29 age group, 30-64 age group, and 65+ age group
3. Change in number
of immigrants by place of birth
4. Number of recent
immigrants by place of birth
5. Change in population
with income under $1000, $1000-$9999, $10000-$39999, and $40000 and over
6. Household income
change
7. Education
8. Number of lone-parent
families
9. Types of dwelling
10. Conclusion
Next Topic: Methodological and Operational Problem
The above figure and table show population percentage change from 1991 to 1996 over the 11 census tracts. The purpose of showing this change is to give a better idea where in the study area has the highest population change and therefore, a greater increase in the number of population. A lighter colour in the figure indicates a lower change while the darker the colour indicates a higher change. Therefore it is clear from the figure that the census tracts of 1.02 and 2.01 have the highest change while census tracts 15.02 and 1.01 have the lowest change, with census tract 1.01 even has a negative change. The two tracts next to the mall have the highest increase in population. From these figures, a conclusion can be made that the study area is actually having population growth from 1991 to 1996. It is highly unlikely that the mall under performance is due to a decline in population in the service area.
2. Population Change of the 15-29 age group, 30-64 age group, and 65+ age group
Population is divided into these three age groups. The 15-29 age group represents the younger persons who are either in school or shortly after school and start working. The 30-64 age group represents individuals who are in their active working age with the greatest purchasing power and disposable income. The 65+ age group is the retired population, which spend quite a lot of money with their savings.
There are three census tracts having population percentage change as negative. The highest percentage change is found in tract 2.01. As an aggregate total a percentage change of 6.84% from 1991 to 1996 of these 11 census tracts is resulted. Therefore there is an overall increase in the population in this age group. People belong to this age group spend quite a lot of money in fashions and trendy stuff which are not daily needs items. However, since the mall does not provide many of these products, rather what the mall offers is more or less daily needs stuff. This group of people is more likely to do their shopping at downtown or Metrotown where there are more selection and ranges of goods.
The 30-64 years age group represents the most active group in terms of buying and purchasing. There is no negative percentage change found in these 11 census tracts. The two highest changes occur at tracts 1.02 and 2.01. The aggregate percentage change is 14.88%, which is the highest among the three age groups. Therefore there is a large increase in the number of population in this age group and they form the main source of customers to the mall. However, do they go to the mall to do their purchase? This is the question to be answered by the following analysis.
Except the 15.02 census tract which shows a negative percentage
change in population 65 years and over, all other tracts have a positive
increase. The aggregate percentage change is 4.45%, not a very big
increase, but it shows a positive increase. From observation, the
mall is exceptionally frequently visited by senior people. Many older
age people spend their daytime in the mall, either drinking coffee or talking
with friends. Therefore these senior people form the backbone of
the survival of the mall. If the mall is demolished, these old people
will have nowhere to go. These senior people are mostly live around
the mall because their mobility is low. They tend not to travel long
to do their purchase. The number of senior people living in the area
do play an important role in determining the mall's survival.
3. Change in number of immigrants by place of birth
The following shows the composition of immigrants by place of birth. The population is divided into three categories of Europe, Asia and others. The objective is to see the mix of ethnicity of people living in the area. Place of birth is being looked at instead of ethnicity because buying habit is affected more by where the people come from, rather than their ethnicity. A Canada-born Chinese has ethnicity as Chinese, but his or her buying habit is definitely different from a person born and come from China.
There is a very large decrease in population of immigrants born in Europe in the study area. All but only two census tracts show a large percentage decrease. The aggregate percentage change is -27.39% which means that Europe-born population has been declining. On the other hand, Asia-born population shows a large increase, as high as 116.83% in tract 1.02. Aggregate percentage increase is 32.83%, which is a high increase. The high increase in Asia-born population is responsible for the decline in customers to the mall. This is not to say that Asia-born residents are not going to shop at the mall, but to a certain extent, they mostly do their shopping elsewhere. First of all, most of these Asia-born immigrants are coming from Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan (as shown in the next topic) which share the same culture. They usually go to Chinatown or Richmond to do most of their shopping. As for older people, they will go to Chinatown to do their grocery shopping since at Chinatown people speak their language for which they understand. Some people may go to Metrotown since there is a Chinese supermarket (the T&T Supermarket). Therefore most older Chinese people are not going to the mall to do their grocery shopping or daily needs. For young people, since in Richmond Chinese operated malls provide all sort of services and goods they need and that access to Richmond is easy by the use of Knight Street Bridge (it just needs about 15 minutes driving down to Richmond from my house). The services provided by the mall are actually not matching their need (this is also true for other young people who live in the area). This leave with the people of the 30-64 age group that they will shop at the mall after they are off from work. Mostly, they will shop for grocery and daily needs stuff. The Zellers store and the Extra Food Grocery store fulfill their needs. If they have to do other shopping, they will most likely go to Richmond or Metrotown where there are some Chinese stores there.
4. Number of recent immigrants by place of birth
These figures show the number of recent immigrants by place of birth living in these 11 census tracts. The numbers are not percentage changes since there is no such statistic in the 1991 census data. However these numbers give a good idea of the composition of immigrants of where they come from. Immigrants are divided into four groups as shown in the above table. The reason why choosing these groupings is to show the number of Chinese immigrants coming from Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan. The number of these people is important for this analysis as mentioned in the previous topic. When comparing the four groups, the first group has the highest number with a total of 6760 persons in these 11 census tracts, although the two tracts immediately next to the mall do not show a high number of Chinese population (the reason for this is going to be explained in the following analysis).
5. Change in population with income under $1000, $1000-$9999, $10000-$39999, and $40000 and over
In this analysis, individual income will be looked at while in the next topic household income will be looked at. The division of the groups is according to how much a person earns in a year, from the very lowest to the very highest. The group of population having income under $1000 is the poorest. This includes persons who are studying with or without job and the older persons who are retired. The income group of $1000-$9999 consists of the low to median income of the working class people. The next income group is the high income population while the $40000 and over group represent the very highest income population.
In all the census tracts, there is a very high percentage increase from 1991 to 1996. The highest change is being at the 15.01 census tract with 252.38% increase. An aggregate percentage change is calculated as 127.59%. The high increase in this group of population can be due to fact that a high increase in the population who are studying but not working or working as part time and population who are retired. The high increase in this group of population means a higher percentage of people who do not have a lot of money to spend. However, this high increase does not necessary mean that people living in the study area are actually getting poorer. There is also an increase towards higher income groups in the population as shown in the followings.
There are six census tracts showing a negative change in population with income $1000-$9999. The aggregate increase is also small, only 1.47%. Therefore these figures show that the population with low and medium income is not increasing to a substantial amount, rather, more than half of the tracts are actually show negative increase with regard to this group of population.
This group of population represents the high income group. Percentage increase is not very high but it shows an increase with an aggregate percentage change of 5.70%. This high income population has a higher purchasing power. The two census tracts next to the mall have the highest percentage change. This high change means that there are more higher income people living around the mall.
The number of population with the highest income shows an increase from 1991 to 1996. Together with the high income group, increase in these two groups of people represents a wealthier population in the study area. This implies two things, first, people living in this area have a higher disposable income due to high income they earn. Second, they have more money to spend in other places as well. With higher disposable income, they can make more purchase at the mall. With more money, they will tend to buy at other places such as downtown or Oakridge where there are more upscale products and choices for them. On the other hand, since the Asian population living in this area consist quite a large proportion, the more wealthy will have a higher mobility to shop elsewhere.
In the spreadsheet, both census family income and private household income can be find. However, since both of them carry the same characteristic and having about the same percentage changes, households income change is selected here to analyze. The grouping of household income has the same principle as do the grouping of individual income. Here the first group represents the lower income households. The second group represents the median income group while the third group represents the high income group. The last group represents the most wealthiest.
Discussed in the previous, the lowest individual income group has the very high percentage change, however, as can be seen here, household income of the lowest group shows an aggregate negative percentage change of -9.97% from 1991 to 1996. This means that the number of private household with low income has been declining. As a household as a whole, this does not reflect the high percentage change of low individual income. Therefore it can be concluded that the high percentage increase in low individual income is due to the higher number of non-working or working part-time students and retired persons.
Actually the aggregate percentage total should have been higher to the negative if the exceptionally high percentages from tract 15.01 and 17.01 are removed. The above figure is somewhat misleading in a sense that in the tracts of 1.02 and 2.01 there is actually no percentage change from 1991 to 1996 but they were filled with a dark colour. The decline in this population group has an implication to the mall. As mentioned before, higher income people tend not to shop at the mall. This left with the low income group that mostly, they will purchase in the area immediately around their homes since their mobility is quite low. Therefore beside the fact that people can purchase along Kingsway and Victoria Drive where there are quite a lot of selection of goods, this group of people will tend to do their purchase at the mall. A decline in this group of population means a decline of customers to the mall.
The two tracts immediately next to the mall have the highest percentage change among the 11 census tracts. The aggregate total percentage change also shows a high increase. The increase in this group of population means a higher number of median income households. This type of household is mostly consisted of typical family with both parents working or just one parent working. They also shop locally for daily needs, but for other types of shopping, these families are more likely going around to spend their family day elsewhere. An increase in this group of population means a higher number of customers shopping for daily needs in the mall.
All but four census tracts show negative increase and the aggregate percentage change is -2.96%. This group of household shows a complex distribution in the study area. On one hand, more than half of the tracts exhibit a negative increase, but the two tracts next to the mall show a high percentage increase. The more households with this high income, the more people with high purchasing power. The decline in the household with this income means the more wealthier households are moving out of this area. However this is not the case since the number of even higher income households are actually increasing.
This group of households has the highest income among all others. Again, the two tracts next to the mall show the highest percentage increase. Overall, there is a high percentage increase of this group of household in the study area, with an aggregate percentage increase of 30.91% from 1991 to 1996. These households with the highest income form the wealthiest groups. The same as the case for individual income, the high household income does not mean that more people from this group will shop at the mall. These households are more likely shopping elsewhere where there is a greater range and more upscale goods. High percentage increase of this group of households means a fewer customers going to the mall.
The following topics are of less importance in terms of population changes affecting the mall, however, these characteristics are also related to the topic under concern and therefore analysis of these attributes is carried out as well.
7. Education
These
two figures show population change regarding to education level of the
population. It is believed that education level affects the buying
habit of a person. The higher educated person will shop differently
and may require a larger range of goods. For example, an university
student is more in need to buy computer products and high technological
products and therefore they need to go to specialized stores to shop for
it. They also spend a lot of money in these specialized products.
Therefore the high percentage increase in the number of persons with education
level at or above university level constitute a decrease in customers to
the mall since these people cannot find what they need in the mall.
Again the highest increase occurs at the two tracts immediate next to the
mall.
8. Number of lone-parent families
The reason of looking at the number of lone-parent families percentage change is that these families have a distinct characteristics which are different from others. These families mostly have only one source of income from one parent, therefore their income is limited. Secondly, the only parent in the family has to look after all the housework and the children by oneself. Therefore in this sense these families do not have a high disposable income and leisure time to shop around. They tend to do their shopping at the mall. The high percentage increase of the number of these families in the tract containing the mall (tract 1.02) and the high aggregate percentage increase (22.68%) mean more lone-parent families are moving into the area. These families take the advantage of proximity to the mall so that they can shop for their needs more easily. A high increase in the number of these families means a higher volume of customers shopping at the mall.
The composition of the types of dwelling has a distinct characteristic and is related to the development of the area and hence, the development of the mall. Since the start of development of the area in 1971 (the south-east sector of City of Vancouver, approximately the area of the census tracts of 1.01, 1.02, and 2.01), the area has undergone a lot of changes. Some of the changes had already discussed in the previous topics. Another change that is unique to this area is the change in types of dwelling happened in the past years. The types of dwelling affect the household size and the composition of population living in the area. Types of dwelling are divided into single-detached house, semi-detached and row house, and apartments and other types of dwelling. There is a hierarchy of sizes of livable area in these three types of dwelling. Single-detached houses have the largest area while apartments have relatively smaller areas. With larger livable areas, more money is needed to buy fixtures and other stuff for the decoration for the house. Therefore people living in single-detached houses may have a different buying habit than the others. People living in semi-detached houses and row houses may represent another group of people with different living habit. People living in this houses MAY have a lower income since the price of purchasing these houses is lower than single-detached houses. However, it can also due to personal preferences rather than price determining the buying decision. Therefore there is only a possibility that this group represents a lower income population. On the other hand it cannot be so sure about whether households living in single-detached houses are wealthier, but there is a possibility.
From the distribution and percentage change in the number of types of dwelling, all three types of dwelling have positive aggregate increase. The number of single-detached house percentage increase is the smallest. However the percentage change of semi-detached and row houses shows the most interesting. There are three tracts have a negative increase of -100%. The three census tracts around the mall have a high increase in the number of these types of houses. Actually the types of dwelling of the whole Champlain Height neighbourhood contains mostly townhouses and cooperatives and apartments which are the result of development in the area. The mall was supposed to serve the population living in this area. Therefore increase in the latter two types of dwelling means that there is still a need to provide service from the mall for this population.
From the above spatial analysis, there are factors that leading to a higher number of customers as well as a decline in a certain kind of customers going to the mall. For one thing, with the scale of the mall and the range of service provided by the mall are being so small, it is hard to compete with other regional malls with a much larger range of products. In terms of basic daily needs, the mall is sufficient to provide the service for the residents around the mall. It is a convenient place for people to shop with its proximity to the surrounding areas, especially for the highly immobile population of the lower income group, lone-parent families and the seniors. The mall does provide a range of service that can fulfill the basic needs of the population, but that is not enough. Population characteristics have been changing for the past years and the mall is not changing with the population change. The mall should be flexible enough to meet the change of taste of its customers. However, due to the scale of the mall is being so small with only 45 stores, this change is not easy to accommodate. Rather, since a portion of customers have already been attracted to the other malls, a change in the structure of the mall is an opportunity for the survival of the mall. A restructuring of the mall may be in favour to the area. The proposed new apartment and townhouse complex will provide more dwellings and the population will increase. The building of new commercial complex also enhance the restructuring of the mall. It has been suggested that the mall should change to a neighbourhood type, rather than a regional oriented mall. From the findings from the above analysis, this option is valid and may provide a good solution to the situation of the mall.