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Canadian
Election Pollsters' Success
A great deal of attention is focused on opinion polls
during an election, with media companies trumpeting the latest poll
they've commissioned. But how successful have pollsters been at
predicting the actual results of Canadian elections? The
tables below compare the results of the last polls published before the
general elections in 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008 elections.
2006 Election
Most Recent Opinion Polls Prior to Election
|
| |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
Election - Share of
Votes (rounded to nearest %)
Jan
23, 2006 |
11 |
36 |
5 |
30 |
18 |
Accumulated Error
( sum of percentage points missed
for each party) |
| Poll |
|
SES
Jan 20-22 |
11 |
36 |
6 |
30 |
17 |
2 |
Strategic
Jan 19, 21 & 22 |
11 |
37 |
6 |
27 |
19 |
6 |
Ipsos
Jan 17- 22 |
12 |
38 |
4 |
27 |
19 |
8 |
2004 Election
Most Recent Opinion Polls Prior to Election
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Election - Share of
Votes (rounded to nearest %)
Jun
28, 2004 |
12 |
30 |
4 |
37 |
16 |
Accumulated Error
(sum of percentage points missed
for each party) |
| Poll |
|
SES
June 22-24 |
12 |
30 |
4 |
34 |
20 |
4 |
Compas
June 22-23 |
13 |
33 |
4 |
34 |
15 |
7 |
Ipsos
June 21-23 |
12 |
31 |
6 |
32 |
17 |
9 |
Ekos
June 21-24 |
11 |
32 |
5 |
33 |
19 |
11 |
2000 Election
Most Recent Opinion Polls Prior to Election
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
Election - Share of
Votes (rounded to nearest %)
Nov
27, 2000 |
11 |
26 |
41 |
9 |
12 |
Accumulated Error
(sum of percentage points missed
for each party) |
| Poll |
|
Compas
Nov 23 |
10 |
25 |
41 |
9 |
12 |
2 |
Leger
Nov 19-23
|
10 |
25 |
43 |
9 |
11 |
5 |
Ipsos
Reid
Nov 17-23 |
10 |
27 |
39 |
10 |
12 |
5 |
Zogby
Nov
22-24
|
7 |
27 |
42 |
9 |
13 |
7 |
|