Home || Political Parties || Polling Data || Ridings || Marginal Seats || Election News || Women & Elections || Election Laws
2006 Election Results || Past Elections || Voter Turnout || Standings at Dissolution || Electoral Reform || Links

2006 Election Opinion Polls

This page provides tables of polling results tracking changes in voters' preferences as the 2006 campaign unfolded. While the focus of most media attention is often on the national levels of support for the various parties, in the end the regional and local levels of support are much more indicative of how parties may fare on election day.

For a more complete picture of the evolution of the campaign, compare the parties' standings in separate tables for:

For a better idea of how fluid public support for parties can be, look back to the evolution of public support for the parties during the 2004 and 2000 election campaigns.

Daily Polls...

CPAC and SES Research combined to offer daily opinion poll results of the national standings of the main political parties. 400 people are interviewed every day, and every three day's worth of sampling are combined for 1200 in the current day's results. The CPAC/SES results are released very weekday, Monday through Friday. The Globe & Mail is also providing a "rolling sample" poll, conducted by Strategic Counsel, with daily results. These daily polls are an excellent way to keep track of the evolving pulse at a national level.

You will notice in the table of national opinion poll results below that some persistent differences emerged in the polls conducted in most of December by The Strategic Counsel and by SES.  When you look at polls conducted during exactly the same time period, the SES polls consistently place the Liberal Party 4 or 5 points ahead of the levels of supported reported in the Strategic Counsel polls. Some of these differences may be explained by different approaches each company takes in trying to factor in poll respondents who do not initially indicate that they have decided whom to vote for.

Undefined depth of support for specific parties

A fundamental problem with media reporting on opinion polls is that there is usually little indication in the initial reports of how soft the reported support is for each party, or how each polling company tries to probe for voting intentions. Polls results often loosely proclaim "40% of decided voters... etc"  However, that final figure may be based on having to prod the respondents at least twice into expressing a preference: 1) "If an election were held today which party would you vote for?" and, if they say don't know, then they are asked 2) "which party are you leaning towards voting for?"  The second group are only leaning and should not be viewed as actual support. But even those who name a party on the first question may be actively considering another party (or whether to vote at all).  It would take other specific questions to establish that the voter has settled their choices and is not likely to switch parties.

Thus, we in the public often miss the fluid nature of public opinion when polls are reported. Every now and again, however, a news item puts a little spot light on the problem.  For example, CTV News reported on its web site on December 8, 2005 that almost half of voters were 'leaners' or did not know whom to vote for. A large poll by Decima conducted between Dec 7-9 also found that 49% of voters said they could change their minds before election day. These little snippets provide much more insight than the current state of the horse race reporting.

The events of the 2004 election demonstrate the impact of voters changing their minds in the final days of this election.  The most recent published poll in the 2006 campaign to reveal the potential for changing party preferences in the dying days of the 2006 camapaing is one conducted by Léger between January 12-17th:

% Voters who may still change their choice of party to vote for (Jan 12-17)
BQ Conservative Green Liberal NDP
23 18 39 27 40

 

 

2006 National Election Opinion Polls

return to top
Link to Poll
(sponsors below)
Polling Data Green Party
Election Day Share of Votes
Final Results
10.5 36.3 4.5 30.2 17.5
SES Jan 20-22
n=1200
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided:  12.5 %
11 36 6 30 17
Strategic Jan 19, 21 & 22
n=2500
error= +/- 2.0 %
Undecided:  n.a. %
11 37 6 27 19
Ipsos Jan 17- 22
n=9648
error= +/- 1.1 %
Undecided:  n.a. %
12 38 4 27 19
Strategic Jan 18, 19 & 21
n=2000
error= +/- 2.2 %
Undecided:  n.a. %
11 37 6 27 18
Ekos Jan 18-20
n=2313
error= +/- 2.0%
Undecided:  16 %
12 37 5 27 20
SES Jan 18-20
n=1200
error= +/- 3.1 %
Undecided: 12 %
11 36 6 29 19
Ipsos Jan 17-19
n=2000
error= +/- 2.2%
Undecided: 4 %
11 38 5 26 19
SES Jan 17-19
n=1200
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 12 %
11 36 6 29 19
Strategic Jan 17-18
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1 %
Undecided: n.a %
12 37 7 28 16
SES Jan 15-17
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 16 %
10 37 4 32 18
Ekos Jan 15-17
n=2018
error= +/- 2.1 %
Undecided: 13.9. %
11 37 5 27 20
Léger Jan 12-17
n=2001
error= +/- 2.2 %
Undecided: 11 %
11 38 4 29 17
Strategic Jan 14-16
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a %
12 42 5 24 17
Ekos Jan 14-15
n=1184
error= +/- 2.8 %
Undecided: 15.0 %
11 39 4 27 19
Ipsos
Internet poll
Jan 13-15
n=8256
error= +/- 1.1 %
Undecided: n.a. %
12 38 5 26 19
Strategic Jan 12-15
n=1500
error= +/- 2.0%
Undecided: n.a %
11 40 6 27 16
Decima Jan 12-15
n=1017
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: n.a %
11 37 n.a. 27 18
SES Jan 12-14
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 14 %
10 38 6 30 17
Ipsos Jan 10-12
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1 %
Undecided: 5.0 %
9 39 5 29 18
SES Jan 10-12
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 14 %
10 40 6 31 14
Strategic Jan 10-12
n=2306
error= +/- 2.0%
Undecided: 8.5 %
12 38 4 28 18
Strategic Jan 9-10
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a. %
12 39 5 28 16
SES Jan 8-10
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 14 %
12 39 4 30 16
Ekos Jan 7-9
n=1240
error= +/- 2.8%
Undecided: n.a. %
13 39 5 27 16
Strategic Jan 5-8
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a. %
13 37 6 29 15
Ekos Jan 3-5
n=1968
error= +/- 2.2%
Undecided: 8.4 %
11 36 5 31 18
SES Jan 3-5
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 18 %
11 34 5 33 17
Ipsos Jan 2-5
n=2004
error= +/- 2.2%
Undecided: 6 %
10 35 5 31 18
Ekos Jan 1-3
n=1386
error= +/- 2.7%
Undecided: 8 %
10 36 5 30 18
SES Jan 1-3
n=1200
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 17 %
13 36 4 33 15
Strategic Dec 30-31 & Jan 3
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
13 32 6 32 17
Ipsos Dec 29-30
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 6 %
12 33 5 32 18
SES Dec 27-29
n=1200
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 16 %
13 34 5 35 14
SES Dec 26-28
n=1200
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 16 %
13 32 4 38 14
Ipsos Dec 20-22
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 7 %
13 32 5 33 16
SES Dec 20-22
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 17 %
12 29 5 39 15
Léger Dec 17-21
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
12 28 5 36 17
Environics Dec 10-21
n=1010
error= +/- 3.2 %
Undecided: 20 %
12 30 5 35 20
Strategic Dec 17-19
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
15 29 6 33 17
SES Dec 17-19
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 19 %
13 29 5 37 16
Strategic Dec 15-17
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
13 30 5 34 19
SES Dec 15-17
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 19 %
13 30 4 38 15
SES Dec 12-14
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 14 %
12 32 5 39 12
Léger Dec 9-13
n=2013
error= +/- 2.2%
Undecided:  6%
12 29 6 35 17
Strategic Dec 10-12
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided:  n.a.%
13 31 6 33 17
SES Dec 10-12
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 18 %
14 30 5 38 13
Ipsos Dec 9-11
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: 8 %
14 27 5 36 17
Ipsos Dec 6-8
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided:  8%
14 27 5 34 16
Strategic Dec 5-7
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided:  n.a.%
14 30 5 36 15
Léger Dec 2-7
n=2006
error= +/- 2.2%
Undecided:  4%
12 27 5 39 16
SES Dec 4-6
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 18 %
11 28 4 40 17
Strategic Dec 4-6
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided:  n.a.%
13 29 6 35 16
SES Dec 2-4
n=1200
error= +/- 3.2%
Undecided: 18 %
13 30 5 37 16
Strategic Nov 30-Dec 3
n=1550
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
14 30 6 34 16
Ipsos Nov 29-Dec 1
n=2450
error= +/- 2.0%
Undecided: 5 %
14 31 5 33 17
Strategic Nov 29-Dec 1
n=n.a.
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: n.a.%
14 30 6 35 16
SES Nov 29-Dec 1
n=1200
error= +/- 2.9%
Undecided: 14 %
14 28 4 37 20
Strategic Nov 28-29
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: n.a.%
14 30 6 35 15
Strategic Nov 24-27
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
14 29 5 35 17
Ipsos Nov 22-24
n=1000
error= +/- 3.1%
Undecided: n.a.%
15 30 5 34 16
Léger Nov 2-8
n=1500
error= +/- 2.5%
Undecided: n.a.%
11 26 7 34 18

Notes: Mike Smit has created a page with graphical representations of the polling data from this page.

Links to Polling Companies

Other sponsors may be identified in the poll reports linked to in the table of results, above.

 

return to top

 

I welcome any feedback and suggestions for fresh material to add to this site -

Andrew Heard
Political Science Department  --  Simon Fraser university