• May 28, 2021

    May 28, 2021

    Contact tracing has played a central role in COVID-19 control in many jurisdictions and is often used in conjunction with other measures such as travel restrictions and social distancing mandates. Contact tracing is made ineffective, however, by delays in testing, calling, and isolating.

  • April 17, 2021

    April 17, 2021

    The only way things can return to normal in BC is if a large portion of our population obtains immunity to the virus, either through infection or through vaccination...

  • March 02, 2021

    March 02, 2021

    There has been a lot of discussion about “variants of concern” (VOC) internationally and across Canada. One of the most important concerns is that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and so has caused the COVID pandemic we are all facing today, has found ways to become more transmissible. We recently posted modelling work on what a higher transmission rate would look like for the number of infections...

  • February 23, 2021

    February 23, 2021

    After many long months with no treatment or vaccine available, and widespread social distancing the main tool for fighting the pandemic, there are now four different vaccines approved that are effective for COVID-19. Unfortunately, we will not have enough vaccine doses for every British Columbian who wants to be vaccinated before the end of summer. We have to decide in what order British Columbians get the doses we do have...

  • February 16, 2021

    February 16, 2021

    The appearance of new COVID-19 Variants of Concern has jurisdictions around the world scrambling to determine whether variants are already circulating within their communities. Here we present modelling results that indicate how many active cases are likely circulating within a community before the first variant is detected...

  • February 09, 2021

    February 09, 2021

    Here we illustrate the kind of reported case trajectory that we may see if a higher-transmission variant, such as the B.1.1.7 variant that has been rising dramatically in frequency in the UK, becomes established in Canada...

  • August 14, 2020

    August 14, 2020

    Currently things appear to be returning to normal in British Columbia. While in other parts of North America the pandemic rages, here, although cases are growing, the number remains small. Schools in BC were closed abruptly in March in response to COVID-19, but were then reopened in June without leading to disaster...

  • August 08, 2020

    August 08, 2020

    So far, BC has been one of the best places to live in the world during the pandemic. When COVID-19 first came here, it was controlled for weeks with strong contact tracing, testing and reporting, and changes to long-term care. Travelers and others at risk were willing to isolate and keep contacts low. After transmission took off, it was detected early, and was slowed very effectively without strict lockdowns or fines; parks mainly stayed open, people cooperated with health guidelines and Dr Henry’s calm updates showed British Columbians how well we were doing. But our measures came at a high social cost, and one impact has been on mental health...