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Apart from general information on opinion polls, this page provides tables of polling results for you to keep track of changes in voters' preferences as the next campaign unfolds. While the focus of most media attention is often on the national levels of support for the various parties, in the end the regional and local levels of support are much more indicative of how parties may fare on election day.
The chart above presents the poll results of many different companies. The dark lines show a moving average of 5 polls at a time, in order to smooth out the sharp and (relatively) meaningless variations that can occur over very short periods of time because of differences in each firm's polling techniques. Unsurprisingly, an Angus Reid poll conducted in August 2009 found very different perceptions of the different political parties held by the supporters and non-supporters of each party. This poll is worth exploring to assess the strengths and weaknesses each party has in trying to attract more voters. Although polls tend to show some meaningful variations over the course of an election campagin, those changes largely occur because of shifts in opinions held by a minority of Canadians. For example, an Angus Reid poll found that in the 2008 election 54% of Canadians already had made up their minds whom to vote for when the election was first called. But considerable shifts can occur among other voters that make the campaign period very decisive in determining the election outcomes. Interestingly, about 15% finally made up their minds on election day; many of those voters, however, would already have been leaning towards one party. Probing peopele about their second choices of party to vote for gives some indication of the room for growth each party has. For example, an Ekos poll conducted in July 2009 found second-choice support for the parties at the following levels: Conservatives 13, Liberals 22, NDP 20, Green 14 and BQ 4. For a better idea of how fluid public support for parties can be, look back to the evolution of public support for the parties during the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2000 election campaigns. Election polling has evolved in recent elections, and it is now standard for major polling companies to conduct polls continuously throughout the election period. They will report results on a near daily basis, with those polls based on the previous 3 or 4 days worth of polling. You can look up just how successful Canadian pollsters have been in predicting the last 3 elections - compare the support for the parties in the polls and at the polls! Reflections on Polling The Library of Parliament has an interesting background paper on Public Opinion Polling in Canada. Matthew Mendelsohn and Jason Brent of Queen's University provide a useful guide to Understanding Polling Methodology - this is essential reading for an insight into just what significance we can attach to particular survey results. One thing to keep in mind is that most polls are published with the national margin of error reported; but the margin of error will be much higher for any provincial or regional figures that are also reported. The Laurier Institute has an interesting collection of material on opinion polls and electoral support for political parties as well as seat predictions based on the current polls. When reading opinion poll results pay close attention to how large the sample size and "undecided" figures are. A large sample makes for more accurate results, particularly at the regional level. A small undecided figure means that the polling company has probed with follow up questions to finding out who a person is most likely to vote for, and included them in the pool of decided voters. But these leaners, as they're known, are expressing a preference, not a decision. They can also be quite volatile and either change their party preference or even decide not to vote at all. Also be cautious in reading too much into polls that were conducted with only one day of interviewing. Generally speaking, several days of interviews are thought to be preferable in order to ensure more chance of capturing a wider range of society in the poll's sample. Because of differences in polling techniques and handling of leaners, each polling agency may develop their own structural bias that under- or over-reports support for particular parties. Mark Pickup provides a very useful chart showing Canadian election polls with their biases corrected and margins of error mapped. This may be the best indication of the "true" levels of support. Polls conducted online are not included in this poll as they are not as accurate as polls conducted by telephone interviews. The problem with online polls is that they exclude about 25% of Canadian households that do not have Internet access and they cannot draw their list of respondents in a truly random fashion form the population. In order for polls to be fully reliable they must include as close to the total population as possible and must draw their list of potential interviews in a random order from that total population. Even telephone interviews have a small but growing problem, as they do not include the growing number of Canadians who use either cell phones or internet phones as their only phone. Undefined depth of support for specific parties A fundamental problem with media reporting on opinion polls is that there is usually little indication in the initial reports of how soft the reported support is for each party, or how each polling company tries to probe for voting intentions. Polls results often loosely proclaim "40% of decided voters... etc" However, that final figure may be based on having to prod the respondents at least twice into expressing a preference: 1) "If an election were held today which party would you vote for?" and, if they say don't know, then they are asked 2) "which party are you leaning towards voting for?" The second group are only leaning and should not be viewed as actual support, and yet most polling companies roll the leaners in with the truly decided. Moreover, even those who name a party on the first question may still be actively considering another party (or whether to vote at all). It would take other specific questions to establish that the voter has settled their choices and is not likely to switch parties. We in the public often miss the fluid nature of public opinion captured when polls are reported. It is not often clear how settled are the voting intentions reported in a poll. Thus it is useful when a polling agency releases results of questions that probe the nature of people's voting decisions. Several polls during the 2006 election showed large numbers of voters were prepared to change their vote. The potential for voters to switch in the last days of the campaign was realized in the 2004 election, when the Liberals gained and the Conservatives dropped several points in the last 2-3 days before voting day. Because of this potential for voters to switch their choice of party or candidate, it is important to follow the polls to track the ebb and flow of public opinion during an election campaign. Once an election is officially called the following list of election polls will be kept updated, and detailed polling results by province & region will also be available.
* Numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding Links to Polling Companies
Other sponsors may be identified in the Canadian election polls linked to in the table of results, above.
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