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Incumbent MPs have something of an advantage in elections, since they have had the benefit of experience and the public
exposure that comes with serving in office. As a result, interesting contests occur in ridings where the sitting MP has decided
not to run again. CBC provides an interactive map
showing the 34 ridings in the 2008 election where no incumbent is running.
Another 9 MPs had called it quits earlier this year but have already been replaced in byelections. Elections
Canada sets a limit that can be spent by each candidate that depends
upon the number of registered voters in each riding. The preliminary candidate spending limits are now available, but final limits are still to be determined.
Milton Chan runs a unique site
providing
riding-by-riding predictions of the contests in each constituency
for national and provincial elections
This site relies on people submitting their assessment of ridings that
they have local knowledge of. Connect to the site and add your two cents
worth! Both this service and UBC's Elections Stock Market have been
uncannily accurate in the past, beating out seat projections by professional polling agencies.
Since our electoral system is created around local elections, one would think that local candidates would play
an important role in people's decision about whom to vote for. However, opinion polls have consistently found that
Canadian voters overwhelmingly decide how to vote on the basis of party leaders or platforms. This trend was evident in
an Ekos poll
released at the start of the 2008 campaign, in which less than 9% of
respondents claimed that the local candidate is the main factor in
their decision. An Ipsos
poll conducted Sep 17-18 asked a somewhat different question but still
found only 17% saying that local candidates were their most important
consideration. You can read an interesting academic paper on the
importance of individual candidates:
"Does the Local Candidate Matter?" (pdf file) by André Blais, Elisabeth
Gidengil, Agnieszka Dobrzynska, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte.
Riding-by-Riding Election Results
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2008 Canadian Election Results
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2006 Riding-by-Riding Results
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2004 Riding-by-Riding Results
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Readjustment of Electoral Boundaries
Each decade independent
Electoral
Boundaries Commissions are set up to review the distribution of seats in the House
of Commons to ensure that the number and size of each province's constituencies
meets the legal requirements. The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled, in
the Electoral
Boundaries Reference case, that Canadians
should have a relatively equal voting power. As a result, the number of
voters per constituency should not normally vary more than + or - 25% from
the average. From time- to time, new ridings are added, and at others
the seats are redistributed among the provinces. The
methods
used to allocate seats among the provinces and to draw boundaries has
changed considerably over the years. The previous
readjustment of electoral boundaries was done in time to come into
effect for the 1997 general elections. Prior to 1985, adjustments
to federal boundaries were achieved by amending the British North America
Act, 1867; since 1985, however, the changes are incorporated into ordinary
law. Section
51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867 and
Electoral
Boundaries Adjustment Act governs the process currently used.
However, riding populations can shift
dramatically within short periods of time. You can look up the differences in
the populations of each riding, to see how
they have changed between the 2001 and 2006 Census. Just in this 5 year period,
the population changes range from -7.6% in BC's Skeena - Bulkley Valley to a
whopping 52.5% in Ontario's Oak Ridges - Markham. StatsCan has a
sortable table of population and dwelling statistics for all the federal
ridings. You can also download an Excel file with all the
population and dwelling data for
Canada's electoral districts. Because the boundaries of electoral
districts changed between the 2000 and 2004 elections it is necessary to
transpose the results on a poll-by-poll basis before you can compare the results
on a riding-by-riding basis. You to
see how the 2000 elections results would
have been under the new 308 seat distribution (Adobe pdf file). Elections
Canada also can show what the results would have been on a
riding by riding basis.
Candidates dropped from the 2008 elections
The following candidates were dropped by their parties during the campaign:
Oct 9: Green candidate Danielle Moreau in Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher (QC); stopped active campaigning and threw her personal support behind the Liberal candidate in order to avoid splitting the vote.
Oct 4: NDP Andrew McKeever in Durham (ON); withdrew after obsence
comments he had made shortly prior to the campaign about other
participants in a Facebook debate on US war resisters.
Sep
26: Liberal Lesley Hughes from Kildonan-St. Paul (Manitoba); dropped
after the deadline and her name remains on the ballot. She had
previously made comments about a 9/11 conspiracy in which Jewish firms
supposedly had advance warning and left the World Trade Center before
it was hit. She has continued to campaign and says she will sit as an
Independent if elected.
Sep 24: NDP Julian West from Saanich-gulf Islands (BC) ; dropped
after the deadline and his name remains on the ballot. An old
controversy erupted concerning his skinny dipping in front of teenagers
during an environmental camp he had run.
Sep 21: Conservative Chris Reid in the riding of Toronto Centre
(ON); he had written in a blog about the need to carry concealed
weapons after the bus beheading, and also dcirticized the other
passengers for standing by during th eattack.
Sep 19: New Democrat Kirk Tousaw in Vancouver-Quadra (BC); a video was circulated showing him taking drugs.
Sep 17: New Democrat Dana Larsen from West Vancouver-Sunshine
Coast-Sea to Sky Country (BC); a video was circulated showing him
taking drugs, and he had a connection with an online company selling
marijuanna and other drug seeds.
Sep 11: Liberal Simon Bedard in Quebec (QC); he had written negative comments about aboriginals after the Oka crisis
Sep 11: Liberal Ricardo Lopez from Beauharnois-Salaberry (QC); he had made disparaging comments about aboriginals
Sep 9: Conservative Rosamond Luke in Halifax (NS); she had two criminal convictions that had apparently not been reported.
Just days prior to the formal issuing of the writs for the election on Sep 7, the Green Party lost a candidate:
Sep 4: John Shavluk in Newton-North Delta (BC) for anti-semetic remarks.
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