Publications The placement of published work on the internet for distribution is not permitted because of copyright restrictions. However, if electronic or paper versions are not available to you please do not hesitate to contact me (e-mail or snail-mail) to request an offprint. "One of the symptoms of an approaching nervous breakdown is the belief that one's work is
terribly important." -- Bertrand Russell. Books:
Andresen, M.A., Haberman, C., Johnson, S. D., & Steenbeek, W. [Eds.] (2020). Special issue: Advances in place-based methods. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, in process.
Andresen, M.A., & Weisburd, D.L. [Eds.] (2018). Special Issue: Place-based policing: New directions, new challenges. Policing: An International Journal, 41(3), 310 - 414.
Braga, A.A., Andresen, M.A., & Lawton, B. [Eds.] (2017). Special issue: The law of crime concentration at places. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(3), 421 - 674.
Andresen, M.A. (2014). Predictive models and geographic profiling, Area Editor. In D. Weisburd and G. Bruinsma (Eds.), Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
Research Monographs:
Andresen, M.A., Mann, E., & Hodgkinson, T. (2017). An evaluation of bylaw and policy changes on pharmacy robberies in British Columbia. Vancouver, BC: College of Pharmacists of British Columbia.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). An assessment of increased police patrol in Lower Lonsdale. North Vancouver, BC: City of North Vancouver.
Andresen, M.A., Reid, A.A., & Jenion, G.W. (2010). An evaluation of CCTV at the Scott Road Skytrain Station. Surrey, BC: City of Surrey.
Andresen, M.A., & Boyd, N.T. (2008). A cost - benefit and cost - effectiveness analysis of Vancouver's safe injection facility. Ottawa, ON: Health Canada.
Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham, P.J. (2007). Hot spots of crime in Vancouver and their relationship with population characteristics. Ottawa, ON: Department of Justice Canada.
Tayebi, M.A., Glasser, U., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). Future applications of big data in environmental criminology. In B. Leclerc & J. Cale (Eds.), Criminology at the Edge: Big Data in Criminology. New York, NY: Routledge, in press.
Andresen, M.A., & Hodgkinson, T. (2019). Place-based data, methods, and analysis: Past, present, and future. In M.D. Krohn, G.P. Hall, A.J. Lizotte, & N. Hendrix (Eds.), Handbook on crime and deviance (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Springer, in press.
Andresen, M.A., & Wuschke, K. (2019). Geography. In R. Wortley, A. Sidebottom, N. Tilley, & G. Laycock (Eds.), Routledge handbook of crime science (pp. 131 - 144). New York, NY: Routledge.
Vaughan, A.D., & Andresen, M.A. (2018). The cost of mental health related calls on police service: Evidence from British Columbia. In R. Mitchell & L. Huey (Eds.), Evidence-based policing: An introduction (pp. 173 - 185). Bristol: Policy Press, University of Bristol.
Andresen, M.A., & Weisburd, D. (2018). Place-based policing: New directions, new challenges. Policing: An International Journal, 41(3), 310 - 313.
Andresen, M.A. (2018). GIS and spatial analyses. In G.J.N. Bruinsma & S.D. Johnson (Eds.), Oxford handbook of environmental criminology (pp. 190 - 209). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Braga, A.A., Andresen, M.A., & Lawton, B. (2017). The law of crime concentration at places: Editors' introduction. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(3), 421 - 426.
Brantingham, P.J., Brantingham, P.L., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). The geometry of crime and crime pattern theory. In R. Wortley & M. Townsley (Eds.), Environmental criminology and crime analysis (2nd ed.) (pp. 98 - 115). New York, NY: Routledge.
Andresen, M.A. (2017). Mapping crime prevention: What we do and where we need to go. In B. Leclerc & E.U. Savona (Eds.), Crime prevention in the 21st century (pp. 113 - 126). New York, NY: Springer.
Andresen, M.A. (2014). Measuring crime specializations and concentrations. In G.J.N. Bruinsma & D.L. Weisburd (Eds.), Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice (pp. 3010 - 3023). New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
Felson, M., Andresen, M.A., & Frank, R. (2012). Mobility polygons and the geometry of co-offending. In M.A. Andresen & J.B. Kinney (Eds.), Patterns, prevention, and geometry of crime (pp. 3 - 15). New York, NY: Routledge.
Kinney, J.B., & Andresen, M.A. (2012). Editors' introduction. In M.A. Andresen & J.B. Kinney (Eds.), Patterns, prevention, and geometry of crime (pp. 1 - 2). New York, NY: Routledge.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). The place of environmental criminology within criminological thought. In M.A. Andresen, P.J. Brantingham, & J.B. Kinney (Eds.), Classics in environmental criminology (pp. 5 - 28). Co-published: Burnaby, BC, SFU Publications and Boca Raton, FL, Taylor & Francis.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Geospatial technology and crime analysis. In K. Hastings (Ed.), Conference proceedings of the GeoTec event 2009. Vancouver BC, Canada.
Steenbeek, W., Vandeviver, C. Andresen, M.A., Malleson, N., Wheeler, A. (2018). sppt: Spatial Point Pattern Test. R package version (0.1.5, 0.1.6). URL: Spatial Point Pattern Test in R.
Steenbeek, W., Vandeviver, C. Andresen, M.A., Malleson, N. (2017). sppt: Spatial Point Pattern Test. R package version 0.1.4. URL: Spatial Point Pattern Test in R.
Miscellaneous Publications:
Andresen, M.A. (2013). Translating the analysis of patterns into police practice: an application of a new spatial point pattern test. Translational Criminology, Fall 2013, 7 - 9.
Andresen, M.A. (2012). Nipping it at the boob: The gateway properties of mother's milk. Science Creative Quarterly, Summer 2012.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). Up or down? an efficiency-based argument for optimal toilet seat placement. Science Creative Quarterly, Fall 2010.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). GIS for crime analysis and prevention. Geospatial Today 8(5): 20 - 22.
Book Reviews:
Andresen, M.A. (2003). Review of: Radtke, K.W., & Wiesebron, M. [Eds.] (2002). Competing for Integration: Japan, Europe, Latin America, and their Strategic Partners. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe. Pacific Affairs 76(3): 447 - 448.
Malleson, N., Steenbeek, W., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). Identifying the appropriate spatial resolution for the analysis of crime patterns. PLOS ONE, in press.
Abstract:Background: A key issue in the analysis of many spatial processes is the choice of an appropriate scale for the analysis. Smaller geographical units are generally preferable for the study of human phenomena because they are less likely to cause heterogeneous groups to be conflated. However, it can be harder to obtain data for small units and small-number problems can frustrate quantitative analysis. This research presents a new approach that can be used to estimate the most appropriate scale at which to aggregate point data to areas. Data and Methods: The proposed method works by creating a number of regular grids with iteratively smaller cell sizes (increasing grid resolution) and estimating the similarity between two realisations of the point pattern at each resolution. The method is applied first to simulated point patterns and then to real publicly available crime data from the city of Vancouver, Canada. The crime types tested are residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft from vehicle and theft of bike. Findings: The results provide evidence for the size of spatial unit that is the most appropriate for the different types of crime studied. Importantly, the results are dependent on both the number of events in the data and the degree of spatial clustering, so a single "appropriate" scale is not identified. The method is nevertheless useful as a means of better estimating what spatial scale might be appropriate for a particular piece of analysis.
Ha, O.K., McCuish, E.C., Andresen, M.A., & Corrado, R.R. (2019). Signalling desistance? Crime attitudes, perceptions of punishment, and exposure to criminogenic models. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, in press.
Abstract:Purpose: To examine individual perceptions of the consequences of crime, the role of criminogenic models, and whether rational choice and criminal social capital are informative of desistance during emerging adulthood. Methods: Data from the Incarcerated Serious and Violent Young Offender Study were used to examine the relationship between different aspects of rational choice theories of desistance, criminogenic environment, and offending trajectories measured between ages 12-30, calculated using semi-parametric group-based modeling. Offending trajectories were then modeled using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Trajectory analyses identified 3 desistance trajectories and 3 non-desistance trajectories. The strongest predictors of desistance trajectories included variables that relate to rational choices that considered the consequences of crime. Conclusions: Rational choice and life course perspectives on desistance as complementary, with sources of informal social control operating in a manner that, along with other factors, helps structure an individual's consideration of, and importance placed on, the consequences of crime.
Ponce, C., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). The spatial structure of sites in ransom kidnappings in El Salvador, 2000 - 2005. Security Journal, in press.
Abstract: We investigate ransom kidnapping in El Salvador, 2000 - 2005, considering the geospatial patterns of abduction, captivity, and release sites. Both captivity and release sites tend to be at similar distances from abduction locations, and these distances were, on average, longer than the distance between the places where the victims were held captive and set free. This indicates that the choices of abduction locations are circumscribed by victims' routine movement patterns and, once abducted, victims are transported to locations where kidnappers feel they have some level of control and will not attract the attention of neighbors or authorities. Lastly, longer distances between captivity and release sites were associated positively and significantly with the ransom measures in the analysis.
Hodgkinson, T., Saville, G., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). The diffusion of detriment: Tracking displacement using a city-wide mixed methods approach. British Journal of Criminology, in press.
Abstract: Crime reduction strategies are often faced with the criticism of crime displacement. Conversely, criminologists find that reductions in crime in one area have a "diffusion of benefits" to surrounding areas. However, these findings are limited due to a lack of extensive longitudinal data and qualitative data that provide context. We examine a natural experiment in displacement: the removal of a convergence setting in which calls for service immediately declined. However, other areas emerged as problematic and, in some places, crime increased dramatically. Using a qualitatively informed trajectory analysis, we examine whether the removal of a convergence setting results in displacement across the entire city. We discuss the implications for opportunity theories and prevention strategies.
Vaughan, A.D., Hewitt, A.N., Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M.A., & Verdun-Jones, S. (2019). Temporal patterns of Mental Health Act calls to the police. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 13(2), 172 - 185.
Abstract: Recent research has shown that crime-related police calls for service account for 20-30 percent of police call-related activity. In this paper, we analyze temporal patterns of calls for police service relating to mental health. Approximately 22,000 mental health related calls are analyzed. Seasonal, monthly, and daily patterns are analyzed using ANOVA and negative binomial regression. Mental health related calls for police service have a distinct temporal pattern for the days of the week and, to a lesser extent, at different times of the year. These calls for police service are elevated during fall/winter months and during the week. Our analyses show that police resourcing based only on criminal activity is limited for at least this one form of police calls for service. This may have implications for police resourcing and scheduling, particularly in the context of the day of the week and when special mental health teams are needed.
Andresen, M.A., & Shen, J-L. (2019). The spatial effect of police foot patrol on crime patterns: A local analysis. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 63(8), 1446 - 1464.
Abstract: A foot patrol program was implemented in Lower Lonsdale, British Columbia, in the summer of 2010 and continues today. As a part of assessing the foot patrol's effect on crime in the neighbourhood, the spatial similarity was examined by comparing the crime pattern before the foot patrol initiative (2007 - 2009) against the crime pattern during the foot patrol program (2010 - 2012). Considering these baseline and treatment data sets and a spatial point pattern test, the spatial similarity between two data sets are analyzed. In general, the continued presence of foot patrol appears to have created a concentration of crime in specific areas, rather than a diffusion effect. The areas that continued to experience increased crime during foot patrol presence were often in the catchment area, suggesting displacement does occur, or along the border between the catchment and primary patrol area.
Hodgkinson, T., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). Changing spatial patterns of residential burglary and the crime drop: The need for spatial data signatures. Journal of Criminal Justice, 61, 90 - 100.
Abstract:Objectives. To investigate spatial pattern data signatures in residential burglary resulting from the crime drop. Methods. Geo-referenced crime data, 2003 - 2016, representing residential burglary are analyzed considering crime concentrations at the street segment level as well as through the use of a nonparametric spatial point pattern test that identifies the stability in spatial point patterns in pairwise and longitudinal contexts. Results. There has been a statistically significant change in the spatial pattern of residential burglary. The decline and corresponding spatial shift in residential burglary from 2003-2016 is related to income and changes in urban form, particularly the use of particular kinds of security. Conclusions. We find support for inclusion of spatial signatures in the testing of crime drop hypotheses and for explanations of the crime drop and residential burglary in the Canadian context.
Hodgkinson, T., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). Understanding the spatial patterns of police activity and mental health in a Canadian city. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 35(2), 221 - 240.
Abstract: Mental health related calls for service are increasing across Canadian communities (Heslop et al., 2011; Iacobucci, 2014). However, the spatial dynamics of these calls for service and their potential relationship with concentrations of crime has not been fully investigated in the Canadian context. The current study examines mental health and other calls for service in a medium sized (approximate population of 250,000), midwestern Canadian city in the year 2014. Using kernel density analysis and a spatial point pattern test (Andresen, 2009), the study explores the concentration and spatial patterns of mental health calls for service across the city. Findings indicate that mental health calls for service differ from other crime related calls for service, except for violent crime. Possible explanations for this pattern and considerations for policy and policing are discussed.
Melo, S.N., Beauregard, E., & Andresen, M.A. (2019). Factors related to rape reporting behavior in Brazil: Examining the role of spatio-temporal factors. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 34(10), 2013 - 2033.
Abstract: The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime in order to have the criminal justice system involved and, potentially, punish offenders. However, for a number of reasons (fear of retribution, self-blame, etc.) most rapes are not reported to police. Most often, the research investigating this phenomenon considers incident and victim factors with little attention to the spatio-temporal factors of the rape. In this study, we consider incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors relating to rape reporting in Campinas, Brazil. Our primary research question is whether or not the spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the reporting of rape, over and above incident and victim factors. The subjects under study are women who were admitted to the Women's Integrated Healthcare Center at the State University of Campinas, Brazil and surveyed by a psychologist or a social worker. Rape reporting to police was measured using a dichotomous variable. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of rape reporting based on incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors. Though we find that incident and victim factors matter for rape reporting, spatio-temporal factors (rape/home location and whether the rape was in a private or public place) play an important role in rape reporting, similar to the literature that considers these factors. This result has significant implications for sexual violence education. Only when we know why women decide not to report a rape may we begin to work on strategies to overcome these hurdles.
Vaughan, A.D., Hewitt, A.N., Andresen, M.A., Verdun-Jones, S., & Brantingham, P.L. (2019). The importance of gender in the spatial distribution of police interactions involving emotionally disturbed persons: An examination of call types. Policing & Society: An International Journal of Research and Policy, 29(2), 137 - 154.
Abstract: The current study investigates gender differences in the spatial distribution of the British Columbia Mental Health Act, criminal and noncriminal police calls-for-service involving emotionally disturbed persons. Using a sample of 4341 police incidents over a three-year period, Andresen's (2009) spatial point pattern test is used in 13 pairwise comparisons of similarity across four dimensions: Mental Health Act events, criminal events, non-criminal events, and gender. Results indicate that the locations in which emotionally disturbed persons intersect with police services are spatially concentrated, and the spatial patterns differ depending on whether the events are calls that fall under the Mental Health Act, criminal, or noncriminal in nature. When considering the gender component, findings indicate that the locations of Mental Health Act calls are the most spatially distinct between males and females. Findings further emphasize that emotionally disturbed persons are involved in many different types of contacts with the police, most of which are apprehensions under the British Columbia Mental Health Act, followed by criminal and non-criminal interactions. From a spatial perspective, the findings also highlight the need to differentiate between genders as well as event types to improve police resourcing and better guide situational crime prevention efforts.
Andresen, M.A., Mann, E., Hodgkinson, T., Thacker. S., & Nakagawa, B. (2019). An evaluation of bylaw and policy changes on pharmacy robberies in British Columbia. Crime Science, 8, Article 1.
Abstract: On 15 September 2015, the College of Pharmacists of British Columbia (BC) implemented a set of by-law and security policy changes in an effort to reduce robberies and burglaries in BC pharmacies. Prior to these by-law and security policy changes, pharmacy robberies were increasing in BC for approximately five years. After implementation, pharmacy robberies decreased significantly. In this paper, we evaluate the potential impact of the by-law and security policy changes on pharmacy robberies in four regions within BC. We find strong evidence supporting that the reduction in pharmacy robberies is a result of this by-law and accompanying security policy changes. Specifically, there was an immediate and substantial drop in pharmacy robberies within Vancouver, with a change in trend (now decreasing instead of increasing) for the Interior and Lower Mainland less Vancouver. These results should be considered support for maintaining these by-laws and security policy changes in BC and potential implementation in other areas of Canada experiencing similar issues.
Andresen, M.A., & Hodgkinson, T. (2018). Predicting property crime risk: An application of risk terrain modeling in Vancouver, Canada. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 24(4), 373 - 392.
Abstract: Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods that can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglaries) in Vancouver, Canada. We demonstrate that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context, but provides insight into non-violent victimization.
Vaughan, A.D., Ly, M., Andresen, M.A., Wuschke, K.E., Hodgkinson, T., & Campbell, A. (2018). Concentrations and specialization of mental health related calls for police service. Victims & Offenders: An International Journal of Evidence-Based Research, Policy, and Practice, 13(8), 1153 - 1170.
Abstract: Over the past two decades, research has consistently shown that criminal activity concentrates at places. Places also exhibit specialization in criminal activity, largely based on criminal opportunities. However, recent research has also shown that criminal events are only a relatively small fraction of calls for police service, generally 20-30 percent. In this paper, we investigate the spatial concentrations and spatial specialization of mental health related calls for police service in a number of municipalities in British Columbia. Overall, we find that mental health related calls are more concentrated in space than criminal events and that specialization relates to social- and health-related services for the mentally ill.
Ristea, A., Andresen, M.A., & Leitner, M. (2018). Using tweets to understand changes in the spatial crime distribution for hockey events in Vancouver. Canadian Geographer, 62(3), 338 - 351.
Abstract: The spatial analysis of crime patterns during social events using social media data has proven to be instructive. This study analyzes the geography of crime considering hockey game days, criminal behavior, and Twitter activity. Specifically, we consider the relationship between geolocated crime related Twitter activity and crime. We analyze six property crime types that are aggregated to the dissemination areas base unit in Vancouver, for two hockey seasons through a game and non-game temporal resolution. Using the same method, geolocated Twitter messages and environmental variables are aggregated to dissemination areas. We employ spatial clustering, dictionary-based mining for tweets, spatial autocorrelation, global and local regression models (spatial lag SL and geographically weighted regression GWR). Findings show an important influence of Twitter data for theft from vehicle and mischief, mostly on hockey game days. Relationships from the GWR models indicate that tweets are a valuable independent variable that can be used in explaining and understanding crime patterns.
Ristea, A., Leitner, M, & Andresen, M.A. (2018). Opinion mining from Twitter and spatial crime distribution for hockey events in Vancouver. Proceedings of the 21st AGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science, Short Papers, Article 70.
Abstract: Spatial analysis of crime during events shows an increased density pattern. In addition, social media activity is intensified during crowded events. Research from the last decade shows relationships between crime patterns and location of Twitter messages. This study is building upon previous literature by using sentiment analysis from Twitter data and applying it in spatial crime analysis regarding events of hockey games. Three crime types are aggregated in dissemination areas for a buffer around Rogers arena in the city of Vancouver, Canada. Landscape features with criminogenic spatial influence are identified, and together with the georeferenced tweets and their sentiment subsets are also aggregated in the spatial units. This approach uses spatial clustering, opinion mining and regression analysis, in order to find meaningful explanatory variables for crime occurrences. Results show the influence of social media text analysis in describing the geography of crime along with the importance of additional criminogenic factors. Regression models displays higher goodness of fit by introducing anticipation, joy, surprise, trust and positive tweets in the models. In addition, traffic signals, liquor businesses, street light poles and public roads were the most significant spatial features in this study for the three crime types.
Wheeler, A.P., Steenbeek, W., & Andresen, M.A. (2018). Testing for similarity in area-based spatial patterns: Alternative methods to Andresen's spatial point pattern test. Transactions in GIS, 22(3), 760 - 774.
Abstract: Andresen's spatial point pattern test (SPPT) compares two spatial point patterns on defined areal units: it identifies areas where the spatial point patterns diverge and aggregates these local (dis)similarities to one global measure. We discuss the limitations of the SPPT and provide two alternative methods to calculate differences in the point patterns. In the first approach we use differences in proportions tests corrected for multiple comparisons. We show how the size of differences matter, as with large point patterns many areas will be identified by SPPT as statistically different, even if those differences are substantively trivial. The second approach uses multinomial logistic regression, which can be extended to identify differences in proportions over continuous time. We demonstrate these methods on identifying areas where pedestrian stops by the New York City Police Department are different from violent crimes from 2006 through 2016.
Breetzke, G.D., & Andresen, M.A. (2018). The spatial stability of alcohol outlets and crime in post-disaster Christchurch, New Zealand. New Zealand Geographer, 74(1), 36 - 47.
Abstract: The devastating Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 left an indelible mark on the city of Christchurch. The social and economic upheaval that immediately followed the Earthquakes has, in time, been replaced with a period of rebuild and transformation. In this study we investigate the effects that the Canterbury Earthquakes had on two important and inter-related phenomena in the city: alcohol availability and crime. More specifically, we investigate how alcohol outlets and crime across six different categories changed in magnitude and spatial distribution pre- (end-2009) and post- (end-2014) earthquake. We do this using a variety of geospatial techniques including a relatively new method: the spatial point pattern test which allows for the identification of changes in spatial patterns at the local level. Results indicate that both alcohol outlets and crime have decreased in magnitude since the Canterbury Earthquakes. Using the spatial point pattern test we found statistically significant differences in spatial point patterns for both alcohol outlets and all crime types pre- to post-earthquake. The similarity in the differences of the spatial distributions of alcohol outlets and crime provides a first empirical clue of their potential association in the city post-earthquake.
Melo, S.N., Pereira, D.V.S., Andresen, M.A., & Matias, L.F. (2018). Spatial/temporal variations of crime: A routine activity theory perspective. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 62(7), 1967 - 1991.
Abstract: Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010 - 2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.
Andresen, M.A., & Hodgkinson, T. (2018). Evaluating the impact of police foot patrol at the micro-geographic level. Policing: An International Journal, 41(3), 314 - 324.
Abstract:Purpose: Investigate the impact of a police foot patrol considering micro-geographic units of analysis. Design/methodology/approach: Six years of monthly crime counts for eight violent and property crime types are analyzed. Negative binomial and binary logistic regressions were used to evaluate the impact of the police foot patrol. Findings: The impact of police foot patrol is in a small number of micro-geographic areas. Specifically, only 5 percent of the spatial units of analysis exhibit a statistically significant impact from the foot patrol. Originality/value: These analyses show the importance of undertaking evaluations at the micro-scale in order to identify the impact of police patrol initiative because a small number of places are driving the overall result. Moreover, care must be taken with how small the units of analysis are because as the units of analysis become smaller and smaller, criminal events become rarer and, potentially, identifying statistically significant change becomes more difficult.
Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M.A. & Saville, G. (2018). "Staying out that public housing": Examining the role of security measures in public housing design. Crime Prevention & Community Safety: An International Journal, 20(2), 99 - 112.
Abstract: Much research exists to demonstrate that strategies related to situational crime prevention (SCP) are important for reducing opportunities for crime. Despite evidence for these strategies, many municipalities and developers do not implement them consistently or appropriately. The current study explores the impact of disregarding such research in a housing development in the southern United States. The failure of proper security measures may lead to higher levels of property and violent crime. Alternatively, surrounding developments, with better site management and access control, may experience fewer police calls for service. The results have implications for crime prevention practitioners, property managers and liability concerns.
Hewitt, A.N., Beauregard, E, & Andresen, M.A. (2018). Identifying the nature of risky places for sexual crime: The applicability of crime pattern and social disorganization theories in a Canadian context. Journal of Criminal Justice, 57, 35 - 46.
Abstract:Purpose: Using both crime pattern and social disorganization theories, the current study investigates the characteristics of those places that experience high counts of sexual crimes. Methods: Socio-demographic factors, ecological variables, land use, and specific sexual crime attractors are used to predict dissemination areas with high counts of sexual crime within a large city using 2,180 founded crime events retrieved from a Canadian police database. Results: Socio-demographic and ecological factors, as well as the presence of particular sexual crime attractors, characterize sexually violent neighborhoods. For example, dissemination areas that have higher percentages of female, male, and single residents, as well as higher counts of rental units, bars, and schools, experience more sexual crimes. Land use does not predict dissemination areas with high counts of sexual crime. Conclusions: Both crime pattern and social disorganization theories provide a framework within which the nature of sexual assault places can be better understood. This information could be used to empower community members as to the types of places that are the riskiest for this type of crime, as well as to create a conversation about interventions that could be put in place at both the secondary and tertiary levels to prevent future sexual assault occurrences.
Wuschke, K.E., Andresen, M.A., Brantingham, P.J., Rattenbury, C., & Richards, A. (2018). What do police do and where do they do it? International Journal of Police Science and Management, 20(1), 19 - 27.
Abstract: Recent research in the economics of policing has been concerned with what the police do and how much time they spend on those activities. Some of this research has highlighted that "crime" only consists of approximately 20 percent of police workload, based on the number of incidents, with much of the remaining 80 percent addressing public safety concerns. In this paper we decompose the nature of police incidents in a suburban city. We show that expenditures on policing, relative to the entire municipal budget, are relatively constant over 30 years and that the volume of police activity has remained relatively constant but with a slight increasing trend. We are able to show that the majority of the crime drop can be attributed to population growth in this suburban city and that the places in which they undertake different activities vary.
Melo, S.N., Andresen, M.A., & Matias, L.F. (2018). Repeat and near-repeat victimization in Campinas, Brazil: New explanations from the Global South. Security Journal, 31(1), 364 - 380.
Abstract: Criminological research has consistently found that crime clusters in both space and time. A subset of this research has investigated repeat victimization (same victim re-victimized within a short period of time) and near-repeat victimization (places near the original victimization are at risk of victimization within a short period of time). Generally speaking, this research has found that repeat victimization occurs within a short time frame and near-repeat victimization occurs within a short distance and a short time frame. We contribute to this literature though an investigation of repeat and near-repeat victimization in a large Brazilian city. Studying five crime types we find strong support for repeat and near-repeat victimization, but the magnitude varies by crime type.
Vaughan, A.D., Wuschke, K.E., Hewitt, A.N., Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M.A., Brantingham, P.L. & Verdun-Jones, S. (2018). Variations in Mental Health Act calls to police: An analysis of hourly and intra-week patterns. Policing: An International Journal, 41(1), 58 - 69.
Abstract:Purpose. Investigating the day of week and hour of day temporal patterns of crime typically show that (late) nights and weekends are the prime time for criminal activity. Though instructive, mental health related calls for service are a significant component of police service to the community that have not been a part of this research. In this paper, calls for police service that relate to mental health are analyzed, using intimate partner/domestic related calls for police service for context. Design/methodology/approach. Approximately 20,000 mental health related and 20,000 intimate partner/domestic related calls for police service are analyzed. Intra-week and intra-day temporal patterns are analyzed using circular statistics. Findings. Mental health related calls for police service have a distinct temporal pattern for both days of the week and hours of the day. Specifically, these calls for police service peak during the middle of the week and in the mid-afternoon. Originality/value. This is the first analysis regarding the temporal patterns of police calls for service for mental health related calls. The results have implications for police resourcing and scheduling, especially in the context of special teams for addressing mental health related calls for police service.
Farrell, G., Hodgkinson, T., & Andresen, M.A. (2018). Homicide in Canada and the crime drop. Crime Science, 7, Article 1.
Abstract: In contrast to the Canadian crime drop of the 1990s, homicide appeared as an anomaly with a peak in the 1970s. Yet previous studies tend to refer only to completed homicides, and here we also include attempts. The resulting trend is remarkable similar to that in Canadian property crime for five decades. This may not be a coincidence and we speculate about a possible causal link.
Melo, S.N., Andresen, M.A., & Matias, L.F. (2017). Geography of crime in a Brazilian context: An application of social disorganization theory. Urban Geography, 38(10), 1550 - 1572.
Abstract: Geography of crime research dates back to the early 1800s, most of which in English and in the context of the United States and Europe, but with a growing and significant literature studying the developing world. We contribute to this literature through an application of social disorganization theory in a Latin American context: Campinas, Brazil. We consider a number of property and violent crime types using census tracts as the spatial unit of analysis. Implementing a spatial regression method, we find support for social disorganization theory, but not as strong as similar studies in Europe and North America. However, because of the context of Campinas, Brazil, a different understanding of the local conditions proves to be important for understanding the geography of crime in this context. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of theoretical developments as well as crime prevention initiatives.
Linning, S.J., Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham. P.J. (2017). Crime seasonality: Examining the temporal fluctuations of property crime in cities with varying climates. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 61(16), 1866 - 1891.
Abstract: This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of OLS (Vancouver, BC) and negative binomial (Ottawa, ON) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables impact certain crime types thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.
Pereira, D.V.S., Mota, C.M.M., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). Social disorganization and homicide in Recife, Brazil. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 61(14), 1570 - 1592.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the determinants of homicide in Recife, Brazil considering social disorganization theory. Using geo-referenced homicide data, 2009 - 2013, and census data, we analyze homicide in Recife using a spatial regression technique that controls for spatial autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity at the census tract level. Overall, we find that homicide in Recife, Brazil is characterized by social disorganization theory. Specifically, positive relationships are found for inequality, rented houses and quantity of people, but negative relationships for population density, literacy, income, household characteristics, and public illumination. Overall, we find that social disorganization theory provides an instructive framework for understanding homicide in Recife, Brazil. However, there are specific contexts to Brazil that are different from North American contexts.
Jalles, J.T., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). Understanding the relationship between the economy and crime: Canadian provinces, 1981 - 2009. International Journal of Social Economics, 44(9), 1268 - 1288.
Abstract:Purpose. To investigate the importance of multiple measures of the economy when investigates the role of the economy with crime, as well as the sensitivity of those results. Methodology. Provincial level data, 1981 - 2009, and a series of statistical specifications. Findings. We find overall support for the Cantor and Land (1985) model of unemployment and crime. We are also able to show the importance of considering multiple measures of economic activity and multiple statistical methods of analysis for the sensitivity of results. Originality. Previous research has shown the importance of multiple measures of the economy but not multiple statistical methods as a sensitivity analysis. We provide such a sensitivity analysis and show that the Cantor and Land (1985) model has significant support.
Andresen, M.A., Curman, A.S.N., & Linning, S.J. (2017). The trajectories of crime at places: Understanding the patterns of disaggregated crime types. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(3), 427 - 449.
Abstract:Objectives. Investigate the spatial concentrations and the stability of trajectories for disaggregated crime types on street segments and intersections in Vancouver, Canada. Methods. A longitudinal analysis of 16 years of crime data using street segments and intersections as the units of analysis. We use the k-means non-parametric cluster analysis technique considering eight crime types: assault, burglary, robbery, theft, theft of vehicle, theft from vehicle, other, and total crime. Results. The overall results for the individual crime types versus overall crime are similar: crime is highly concentrated regardless of crime type, most street segment and intersection trajectories are stable over time with the others decreasing, and most decreasing trajectories are in the same general areas. However, there are notable differences across crime types that need to be considered when attempting to understand spatial pattern changes and implement crime prevention initiatives. Conclusions. The law of crime concentration at places holds in Vancouver, Canada for disaggregated crime types in the context of spatial concentrations and their stability over time. However, notable differences exist across crime types that should be accounted for when developing theory or policy.
Hodgkinson, T., Gately, N., McCue, J., Shuhad, A., Corrado, R.R., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). Fear of crime in an island paradise: Examining the generalizability of key theoretical constructs in the Maldivian context. International Criminal Justice Review, 27(2), 108 - 125.
Abstract: Numerous empirical studies have examined fear of crime. Key theoretical constructs include: age, gender, vulnerability, marital status, social cohesion, social incivilities, and perceptions of police. While these constructs have extensive empirical support from cross-sectional and longitudinal projects, they focused on western liberal democratic nations. Little research exists on fear of crime and its correlates within smaller, island nation states. The current study (n = 480) examines: a) the prevalence of fear of crime within the Maldives, and b) the extent to which previous theoretical constructs can be generalized to other population areas. Findings demonstrate levels of fear of crime in the Maldives consistent with western liberal democratic societies, but that only certain previous theoretical constructs are associated with variations in fear of crime.
Linning, S.J., Andresen, M.A., Ghaseminejad, A.H., & Brantingham, P.J. (2017). Crime seasonality across multiple jurisdictions in British Columbia, Canada. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 59(2), 251 - 280.
Abstract: Seasonal changes in crime have been documented since the mid-1800s but no definitive consensus has been reached regarding universal annual patterns. Researchers also tend to focus on a single city over a particular time period and, due to methodological differences, studies can often be difficult to compare. As such, this study investigates the seasonal fluctuations of crime across 8 different cities in British Columbia, Canada between 2000 and 2006. Uniform Crime Report data, representing four crime types (assault, robbery, motor vehicle theft and break and enter) were used in negative binomial or Poisson count models and regressed against trend, weather and illumination variables. Results suggest that temperature changes impacted assault levels, few weather variables affected the occurrence of robberies, and fluctuations in property crime types were variable across cities. Moreover, rain and snow had a deterrent effect on crime in cities that were not used to such weather conditions. These findings imply that: (a) changes in weather patterns modify peoples' routine activities and, in turn, influence when crime is committed, (b) universal crime seasonality patterns should not be assumed across all cities, and (c) crime seasonality should be studied at a disaggregate/crime-specific level.
Andresen, M.A., Linning, S.J., & Malleson, N. (2017). Crime at places and spatial concentrations: Exploring the spatial stability of property crime in Vancouver BC, 2003-2013. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(2), 255 - 275.
Abstract:Objectives. Investigate the spatial concentrations and spatial stability of criminal event data at the micro-spatial unit of analysis in Vancouver, British Columbia. Methods. Geo-referenced crime data, 2003 - 2013, representing four property crime types (commercial burglary, mischief, theft from vehicle, theft of vehicle) are analyzed considering crime concentrations at the street segment and street intersection level as well as through the use of a nonparametric spatial point pattern test that identifies the stability in spatial point patterns in pairwise and longitudinal contexts. Results. Property crime in Vancouver is highly concentrated in a small percentage of street segments and intersections, as few as 5 percent of street segments and intersections in 2013 depending on the crime type. The spatial point pattern test shows that spatial stability is almost always present when considering all street segments and intersections. However, when only considering the street segments and intersections that have crime, spatial stability is only present in recent years for pairwise comparisons and moderately stable in the longitudinal tests. Conclusions. Despite the crime drop that has occurred in Vancouver, there is still spatial stability present over time at levels suitable for theoretical development. However, caution must be taken when developing initiatives for situational crime prevention.
Pereira, D.V.S., Mota, C.M.M., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). The homicide drop in Recife, Brazil: A study of crime concentrations and spatial patterns. Homicide Studies, 21(1), 21 - 38.
Abstract: Studies in crime concentrations have focused primarily in North America with a rather restrictive set of crime types. In this paper we analyze the crime concentrations and spatial patterns of homicide in Recife, Brazil. Brazil's homicide rate have remained stable but at high levels, approximately 30 homicides per 100,000. Some places have experienced notable decreases in homicide: in Recife, the capital of Pernambuco, there has been a drop in the homicide rate of 46.67 percent, 2000 - 2012. We analyzed the decline of homicides finding that it continues to be highly concentrated, but the decrease has not been uniform.
Gallison, J.K., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). Crime and public transportation: A case study of Ottawa's O-Train system. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 59(1), 94 - 122.
Abstract: The following research seeks to provide insight into the phenomenon of crime and public transit systems. We utilize a case study, the O-Train from Ottawa, Ontario, Canada to determine if the presence of an O-Train stations predicts crime in the surrounding neighbourhood. Crime data were obtained from Ottawa Police Services between January 2006 and December 2006 to help identify potential clustering of offences within close proximity to O-Train stations. Geo-spatial measures (local Moran's I) were utilized to help determine whether certain offences were more prominent in areas that hosted an O-Train station and, we then used this outcome variable in a logistic regression. Our results show that the presence of an O-Train station is related to more theft of vehicle, but not robbery or commercial burglary.
Ha, O.K., & Andresen, M.A. (2017). Unemployment and the specialization of criminal activity: A neighborhood analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 48, 1 - 8.
Abstract:Purpose. Test the Cantor and Land (1985) model of unemployment on crime at the neighborhood level considering crime specialization. Methods. A panel of 87 census tracts in Vancouver, Canada for the years 1991, 1996, and 2001 is used in a decomposition model. We also control for a large number of routine activity and social disorganization theory variables. Results. Unemployment has an impact on crime specialization, but this impact varies in magnitude and by crime type. Strong support for the Cantor and Land (1985) model is found in the context of crime specialization. Conclusions. The Cantor and Land (1985) is robust to an alternative measure of criminal activity. The use of alternative measures provides insight into the subtleties of the relationship between unemployment and crime.
Song, J., Andresen, M.A., Brantingham, P.L., & Spicer, V. (2017). Crime on the edges: Patterns of crime and land use change. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 44(1), 51 - 61.
Abstract: Criminologists have long-known that different locations have varying levels of risk for criminal victimization. Based on the geometry of crime and its corresponding crime generators and crime attractors, edges (boundaries between relatively homogeneous neighborhoods) are locations with an elevated risk of criminal victimization. In this paper we investigate the importance of edges. We find that criminal victimization rates are 2-3 times on an edge compared to elsewhere. However, this effect decreases very quickly moving away from these locations, with the effect gone at 40 meters. This general effect is identified in a number of contexts and locations.
Amirault, J., Bouchard, M., Farrell, G., & Andresen, M.A. (2016). Criminalizing terrorism in Canada: Investigating the sentencing outcomes of terrorist offenders from 1963 to 2010. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 106(4), 769 - 810.
Abstract: Despite having endured significant terrorist incidents over the past fifty years, terrorism specific offenses were not criminalized in Canada until the implementation of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) in 2001. One of the primary goals of this legislation was to provide law enforcement with the tools necessary to proactively prevent terrorist incidents; however, the effectiveness of these new legal measures and the potential for the increased punishment of offenders sanctioned under them, remains unclear. Using a sample of convicted terrorist offenders (n = 153), the current study investigates variability in the sentencing outcomes of terrorist offenders sanctioned in Canada between 1963 and 2010. The findings indicate that a greater proportion of offenses were prevented following the implementation of the ATA; however, offenders previously convicted of general Criminal Code offenses were sanctioned more harshly than those convicted of terrorism specific offenses alone. Furthermore changes in the legal processing, and demographic structure, of terrorist offenders are uncovered.
Andresen, M.A., & Linning, S.J. (2016). Unemployment, business cycles, and crime specialization: An analysis of Canadian provinces, 1981 - 2009. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 49(3), 332 - 350.
Abstract: The relationship between unemployment and crime is complex, consisting of two independent and counteracting effects: motivation and guardianship. In a model put forth by Cantor and Land (1985), these two effects were integrated for the first time leading to a new branch of literature investigating the relationship between unemployment and crime. However, this literature always considers the impact of unemployment (or some other measure of the economy) on the volume or rate of crime. In this paper, we investigate the role unemployment plays in crime specialization on the Canadian provinces. Using a panel data set and a hybrid modeling technique, 1981 - 2009, we find that unemployment has an impact on crime specialization, but this impact varies in magnitude and by crime type.
Jozaghi, E., Lampkin, H. & Andresen, M.A. (2016). Peer-engagement and its role in reducing the risky behaviour among crack and methamphetamine smokers of the Downtown Eastside Community of Vancouver, Canada. Harm Reduction Journal, 13, Article 19.
Abstract:Background. The role of peers (former or current drug users) in reducing risky behaviour within methamphetamine and crack smokers has not been well described or researched. The current study not only explores the role of peers in reducing risk factors for morbidity within the illicit drug smoking population in the Downtown Eastside (DTES) community of Vancouver, but it investigates the changes in the nature of drug use after the closure of an unsanctioned smoking facility. Methods. The data pertain to qualitative interviews with 10 peers and 10 illicit drug smokers. The semi-structured interviews were conducted through community-based research and the digital transcripts were analyzed via NVivo 10 software. Results. The results indicate that peers (former and current drug users who are employed as educators) are instrumental in transferring risk reduction knowledge within crack and methamphetamine smokers. For example, these peers have been able to teach users about the risk of sharing pipes, using brillo, and public drug use. Furthermore, the Vancouver Area Network of Drug Users provides employment for crack and methamphetamine users in Vancouver who tend to have scarce sources of employment. However, since the closure of the unsanctioned inhalation facility, there has been significantly more public drug use and pipe sharing in the vicinity of the facility, placing drug smokers at significant risk of arrest, violence and blood-borne infections. Conclusions. The current study recommends expanding the harm reduction peer network for people who smoke illicit drugs in the DTES community of Vancouver who have historically been underserved.
Pereira, D.V.S., Andresen, M.A., & Mota, C.M.M. (2016). A temporal and spatial analysis of homicides. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 46, 116 - 124.
Abstract: The temporal analyses of crime date back almost 200 years with mixed empirical support. In this paper, we contribute to this literature investigating the temporal variations (seasons, months, days of week, and periods of day) of homicide in a city with a tropical climate, Recife, Brazil. Invoking both temperature aggression and routine activity theory as theoretical explanations, we found no statistically significant differences across seasons or months despite modest increases in the hottest and driest months. We did, however, find statistically significant increases in homicides during the weekends and evenings. Moreover, we found evidence for changes in the spatial patterns of homicide at different temporal dimensions. Overall, we found little empirical support for temperature aggression theory and strong support for routine activity theory.
Vaughan, A., Hewitt, A., Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham, P.L. (2016). Exploring the role of the environmental context in the spatial distribution of calls-for-service associated with emotionally disturbed persons. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 10(2), 121 - 133.
Abstract: A subset of persons with mental illness is at risk for becoming involved with the police, and an even smaller subset of emotionally disturbed persons (EDP) has multiple contacts over time. Not much is known, however, about the nature of these contacts and how the patterns of everyday life can lead to the initial contact with, and type of police response to, EDP. To address this issue, a spatial point pattern test is used to compare the spatial distributions of calls-for-service involving EDP (n=2,847) to all other police contacts (n=137,901) in an urban Canadian setting. Findings indicate that there are significant variations among these two calls-for-service, with EDP calls clustering on very few street segments. To better understand this clustering, a series of place attractors that may affect EDP are analyzed. It is suggested that a link may exist between the density of place attractors and that of EDP calls-for-service.
Jozaghi, E., Carleton, R., & Andresen, M.A. (2016). Utility of the theory of planned behaviour for predicating needle sharing amongst injection drug users. Journal of Substance Use, 21(3), 249 - 256.
Abstract: The present study examined the predictive ability of theory of planned behavior (TPB) regarding intention to share needles amongst injection drug users (IDUs). The data were derived from 109 IDUs in Montreal, Canada, and collected by means of self-administered questionnaires. The Spearman's correlation was used to see the relations between the predicting variables and the intention. Furthermore, ordinal regression analysis was conducted to see different predictive possibilities of TPB components. Perceiving needle sharing as a good practice and careless craving for drugs were significantly positively correlated with the intention to share syringe with others in the future 8 months. Ordinal regression results showed that indirect perceived behavioral control as being the strongest predictor of intention. In other words, for every one unit of increase in drug craving behavior, IDUs are 48% more likely to share their needles in the future 8 months. The results indicate that self-regulatory strategies are important in predicting needle sharing behavior.
Malleson, N., & Andresen, M.A. (2016). Exploring the impact of ambient population measures on London crime hotspots. Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 52 - 63.
Abstract:Purpose: Crime analysts need accurate population-at-risk measures to quantify crime rates. This research evaluates five measures to find the most suitable ambient population-at-risk estimate for 'theft from the person' crimes. Method: 1. Collect datasets that might represent the ambient population, drawing on the 2011 Census, aggregate mobile telephone locations, and social media. 2. Correlate the population measures against crime volumes to identify the strongest predictor. 3. Use the Gi* statistic to identify statistically significant clusters of crime under alternative denominators. 4. Explore the locations of clusters, comparing those that are significant under ambient and residential population estimates. Results and Discussion: The research identifies the Census workday population as the most appropriate population-at-risk measure. It also highlights areas that exhibit statistically significant rates using both the ambient and residential denominators. This hints at an environmental backcloth that is indicative of both crime generators and attractors -- i.e. places that attract large numbers of people for non-crime purposes (generators) as well as places that are used specifically for criminal activity (attractors). Regions that are largely residential and yet only exhibit hotspots under the ambient population might be places with a higher proportion of crime attractors to stimulate crime, but fewer generators to attract volumes of people.
Spicer, V., Song, J., Brantingham, P.L., Park, A., & Andresen, M.A. (2016). Street profile analysis: A new method for mapping crime on major roadways. Applied Geography, 69, 65 - 74.
Abstract: Street profile analysis is a new method for analyzing temporal and spatial crime patterns along major roadways in metropolitan areas. This crime mapping technique allows for the identification of crime patterns along these street segments. These are linear spaces where aggregate crime patterns merge with crime attractors/generators and human movement to demonstrate how directionality is embedded in city infrastructures. Visually presenting the interplay between these criminological concepts and land use can improve police crime management strategies. This research presents how this crime mapping technique can be applied to a major roadway in Burnaby, Canada. This technique is contrasted with other crime mapping methods to demonstrate the utility of this approach when analyzing the rate and velocity of crime patterns overtime and in space.
Andresen, M.A. (2016). An area-based nonparametric spatial point pattern test: The test, its applications, and the future. Methodological Innovations, 9, Article 12.
Abstract: The analysis of spatial point patterns is a critical component of the geographic information analysis literature. Most of the tests for these data are concerned with random, uniform, and clustered patterns. However, knowing if a spatial point pattern is similar to these theoretical data generating processes is not always instructive: most human activity is clustered, so finding that some component of human activity is clustered is not really new information. In this paper, a recently developed spatial point pattern test is discussed that compares the similarity of two different data sets. This comparison can be comparisons of different phenomena (different types of crime or public health issues) or the same phenomenon over time, for example. The discussion revolves around the test itself, its varied applications, and the future developments expected for this spatial point pattern test.
Hodgkinson, T., Andresen, M.A., & Farrell, G. (2016). The decline and locational shift of automotive theft: A local level analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 44(1), 49 - 57.
Abstract:Purpose: Investigate the changes in the spatial patterns of auto theft in Vancouver, British Columbia during a time of a significant crime drop. Methods: Geo-referenced auto theft data, 2003 and 2013, is analyzed considering crime concentrations at the street segment level, kernel density estimation, and a nonparametric spatial point pattern test that identifies the similarity in spatial point patterns. Results: Auto theft in Vancouver has dropped significantly, but does not appear to have a stable crime pattern. Specific and limited areas account for the crime drop in auto theft rather than occurring at all places. These places appear to be related to target suitability and, therefore, opportunity. Conclusions: The crime drop for auto theft in Vancouver has occurred in particular places. This provides support for the implementation of situational prevention efforts.
Jozaghi, E., Hodgkinson, T., & Andresen, M.A. (2015). Is there a role for potential supervised injection facilities in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada? Urban Geography, 36(8), 1241-1255.
Abstract: Supervised injection facilities (SIFs) are medical facilities where injection drug users can inject their illicit drugs under the supervision of nurses and doctors. Currently there is only one legal SIF in operation in North America and it has been operating in Vancouver, British Columbia for more than a decade. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the current facility needs to be expanded to other locations in British Columbia, Canada. This paper relied on mathematical modeling to estimate the number of new HIV and hepatitis C infections prevented based on the secondary data. Additionally, we estimate the number of prevented overdose deaths. With very conservative estimates, it is predicted that establishing two SIFs locations outside Vancouver in British Columbia's capital city, Victoria, is cost-effective, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.25:1. It appears that expanding supervised injection facilities to Victoria could offer significant savings to the local health care.
Andresen, M.A. (2015). Predicting local crime clusters using (multinomial) logistic regression. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, 17(3), 327 - 339.
Abstract: Understanding hot spots of crime has been a concern of spatial criminology for nearly 200 years. There are a number of methods for identifying and/or calculating hot spots, such as dot maps, surface interpolation (kernel density estimation), and statistically identified cluster analysis. Relating to the latter set of methods, local Moran's I is one of the more commonly used methods for identifying local crime clusters. One of the important aspects for this method for subsequent analysis is that this method uses areas, such as census boundary units, to identify local clusters of crime. Consequently, census data may be used to predict and better understand these local crime clusters. In this paper, I use multinomial logistic regression and census variables to predict the local crime clusters identified by local Moran's I. Through this analysis it is shown that a number of nuances regarding local crime clusters, and the spatial patterns of crime more generally, can be identified using this two-stage approach. Such an approach provides a better understanding of spatial crime patterns than the more common regression methods.
Melo, S.N., Matias, L.F., & Andresen, M.A. (2015). Crime concentrations and similarities in spatial crime patterns in a Brazilian context. Applied Geography, 62, 314 - 324.
Abstract: Research within the geography of crime and spatial criminology literatures most often show that crime is highly concentrated in particular places. Moreover, a subset of this literature has shown that the spatial patterns of these concentrations are different across crime types. This raises questions regarding the appropriateness of aggregating crime types (property and violent crime, for example) when the underlying spatial pattern is of interest. In this paper, using crime data from Campinas, Brazil, we investigate the crime concentrations and the similarities among different crime types across space. Similar to some recent research in another context, we find that crime is highly concentrated in Campinas but the ability to aggregate similar crime types at the street segment level is not generalizability when compared to a North American context.
Andresen, M.A., & Malleson, N. (2015). Intra-week spatial-temporal patterns of crime. Crime Science, 4, Article 12.
Abstract: Since its original publication, routine activity theory has proven most instructive for understanding temporal patterns in crime. The most prominent of the temporal crime patterns investigated is seasonality: crime (most often assault) increases during the summer months and decreases once routine activities are less often outside. Despite the rather widespread literature on the seasonality of crime, there is very little research investigating temporal patterns of crime at shorter time intervals such as within the week or even within the day. This paper contributes to this literature through a spatial-temporal analysis of crime patterns for different days of the week. It is found that temporal patterns are present for different days of the week (more crime on weekends, as would be expected) and there is a spatial component to that temporal change. Specifically, aside from robbery and sexual assault at the micro-spatial unit of analysis (street segments) the spatial patterns of crime changed. With regard to the spatial pattern changes, we found that assaults and theft from vehicle had their spatial patterns change in predictable ways on Saturdays: assaults increased in the bar district and theft from vehicles increased in the downtown and recreational car park areas.
Malleson, N., & Andresen, M.A. (2015). Spatio-temporal crime hotspots and the ambient population. Crime Science, 4, Article 10.
Abstract: It is well known that, due to that inherent differences in their underlying causal mechanisms, different types of crime will have variable impacts on different groups of people. Furthermore, the locations of vulnerable groups of people are highly temporally dynamic. Hence an accurate estimate of the true population at risk in a given place and time is vital for reliable crime rate calculation and hotspot generation. However, the choice of denominator is fraught with difficulty because data describing popular movements, rather than simply residential location, are limited. This research will make use of new "crowd-sourced" data in an attempt to create more accurate estimates of the population at risk for mobile crimes such as street robbery. Importantly, these data are both spatially and temporally referenced and can therefore be used to estimate crime rate significance in both space and time. Spatio-temporal cluster hunting techniques will be used to identify crime hotspots that are significant given the size of the ambient population in the area at the time.
Curman, A.S.N., Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham, P.J. (2015). Crime and place: A longitudinal examination of street segment patterns in Vancouver, BC. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 31(1), 127 - 147.
Abstract:Objectives: To test the generalizability of previous crime and place trajectory analysis research on a different geographic location, Vancouver BC, and using alternative methods. Methods: A longitudinal analysis of a 16-year data set using the street segment as the unit of analysis. We use both the group-based trajectory model and a non-parametric cluster analysis technique termed k-means that does not require the same degree of assumptions as the group-based trajectory model. Results: The majority of street blocks in Vancouver evidence stable crime trends with a minority that reveal decreasing crime trends. The use of the k-means has a significant impact on the results of the analysis through a reduction in the number of classes, but the qualitative results are similar. Conclusions: The qualitative results of previous crime and place trajectory analyses are confirmed. Though the different trajectory analysis methods generate similar results, the non-parametric k-means model does significantly change the results. As such, any data set that does not satisfy the assumptions of the group-based trajectory model should use an alternative such as k-means.
Malleson, N., & Andresen, M.A. (2015). The impact of using social media data in crime rate calculations: shifting hot spots and changing spatial patterns. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 42(2), 112 - 121.
Abstract: The crime rate is a statistic used to summarise the risk of criminal events. However, research has shown that choosing the appropriate denominator is non trivial. Different crime types exhibit different spatial opportunities and so does the population at risk. The residential population is the most commonly used population at risk, but is unlikely to be suitable for crimes that involve mobile populations. In this paper, we use 'crowd-sourced' data in Leeds, England to measure the population at risk, considering violent crime. These new data sources have the potential to represent mobile populations at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than other available data. Through the use of two local spatial statistics (Getis-Ord GI* and the Geographical Analysis Machine) and visualization we show that when the volume of social media messages, as opposed to the residential population, is used as a proxy for the population at risk criminal event hot spots shift spatially. Specifically, the results indicate a significant shift in the city center, eliminating its hot spot. Consequently, if crime reduction/prevention efforts are based on resident population based crime rates, such efforts may not only be ineffective in reducing criminal event risk, but be a waste of public resources.
LaRue, E., & Andresen, M.A. (2015). Spatial patterns of crime in Ottawa: The role of universities. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 57(2), 189 - 214.
Abstract: This paper explores the spatial distribution of crime in Ottawa, Canada in 2006. Social disorganization theory and routine activity theory provide the theoretical framework for examining the relationship between the counts of burglary, robbery, and motor vehicle theft and the two universities, University of Ottawa and Carleton University. A spatial regression procedure that accounts for spatial autocorrelation is used in the analyses. We find support for the use of social disorganization theory and routine activity theory with the expected relationships between the socio-demographic and socio-economic variables and crime. We also find that universities are the strongest predictors of the counts of burglary and motor vehicle theft.
Jalles, J.T., & Andresen, M.A. (2015). The social and economic determinants of suicide in Canadian provinces. Health Economics Review, 5, Article 1.
Abstract:Background: In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between suicide and a variety of socioeconomic variables. We use a panel data set of Canadian provinces, 2000 – 2008, and a set of recent panel econometric techniques in order to account for a variety of statistical specification issues. Results: We find that the social and economic determinants of suicide in Canadian provinces vary across total, male, and female counts (natural logarithms) and rates. We also find that the results vary depending on the econometric method employed. As such, separate analyses for males and females is necessary for a better understanding of the factors that impact suicide (consistent with previous research) and that the choice of statistical method impacts the results. Lastly, it is important to note the particular provinces are driving the results for particular socioeconomic variables. Conclusions: Such a result, if generalizable, has significant implications for suicide prevention policy.
Andresen, M.A. (2015). Identifying changes in spatial patterns from police interventions: The importance of multiple methods of analysis. Police Practice and Research, 16(2), 148 - 160.
Abstract: The policing initiative of foot patrol was implemented to reduce crime and disorder as well as benefit the relationship between the community and the police in the community of Lower Lonsdale, North Vancouver, British Columbia. In this paper, police incident data are analyzed to evaluate the impact of police foot patrol on the hot spots of crime in this community. Specifically, two spatial analysis techniques (kernel density estimation and local Moran's I) are used to show how the nuances of changes in spatial crime patterns can emerge when multiple methods of analysis are used.
Andresen, M.A. (2015). Unemployment, GDP, and crime: The importance of multiple measurements of the economy. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 57(1), 35 - 58.
Abstract: The relationship between unemployment and crime is complex and consists of two independent and counteracting mechanisms: the motivation effect and the guardianship/opportunity effect. Cantor and Land (1985) put forth a model that synthesizes these two effects and found that guardianship/opportunity dominates motivation. Recent work questions this result and the use of unemployment to measure economic performance. Rather, some of this research uses a direct measure of the economy at the U.S. state level, gross state product, for example. In this paper, the relationship between crime and economic performance is investigated using unemployment, gross domestic product, a hybrid modeling approach, and Canadian provinces as the unit of analysis. It is found that both unemployment and gross domestic product matter for crime, guardianship/opportunity explains more results than motivation, and the strength of either effect depends on the crime type being analyzed.
Andresen, M.A., & Linning, S.J. (2014). Beginning to understand the economic costs of children's exposure to intimate partner violence. International Journal of Child, Youth and Family Studies, 5(4), 588 - 608.
Abstract: Intimate partner violence comprises 37 percent of violent crime in Canada, imposing significant economic costs on society. Childhood exposure to intimate partner violence is a well-documented phenomenon, but the resulting costs are less understood. Some research has found that children exposed to intimate partner violence are at a greater risk of developing health and behavioural problems that potentially impact these children as well as society as a whole. However, there is no known estimate of the economic costs of this exposure to intimate partner violence. In this paper, we develop a simple model to estimate these costs. We estimate that each year there are approximately 125,000 new children exposed to intimate partner violence generating a yearly economic cost to society of $759 million for that one cohort of children in Canada. Over a period of 10 years, this one cohort would impose an economic cost of $7.0 billion, and this is a substantial underestimate because it does not include the new sets of children exposed to intimate partner violence each year. As such, the potential for societal economic cost savings resulting from the prevention of intimate partner violence is significant.
Andresen, M.A., & Lau, K.C.Y. (2014). An evaluation of police foot patrol in Lower Lonsdale. Police Practice and Research, 15(6), 476 - 489.
Abstract: A crime reduction initiative of increased police foot patrol was implemented in a relatively low crime community, 09 June 2010 to 30 September 2010. This study analyzes police incident data from January 2007 to September 2010 to evaluate this initiative. Overall, there was a drop in calls for police service in 2010, 16 - 17 percent. Moreover, the results of the evaluation indicate a statistically significant reduction in mischief and commercial burglary. The results also suggest that increasing police foot patrol does not lead to crime displacement. Overall, this evaluation adds to the police foot patrol literature by showing that police foot patrol does have a positive effect on crime in relatively low crime areas and on property crimes.
Jozaghi, E., Reid, A.A., Andresen, M.A., & Juneau, A. (2014). A cost-benefit/cost-effectiveness analysis of proposed supervised injection facilities in Ottawa, Canada. Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy, 9, Article 31.
Abstract:Background: Supervised injection facilities (SIFs) are venues where people who inject drugs (PWID) may bring their own illicit drugs to safely inject with clean equipment in a medically supervised environment. There is currently only one legal SIF in North America – Insite in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The evaluation of Insite in Vancouver has been overwhelmingly positive. This study assesses whether the current facility in the Downtown Eastside of Vancouver needs to be expanded to other locations such as Canada's capital city Ottawa. Methods: The current study was aimed at contributing to the literature by conducting cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses for the opening of SIFs in Ottawa, Ontario. Specifically, the costs of operating various numbers of SIFs in Ottawa was compared to the savings incurred after accounting for the prevention of new HIV and Hepatitis C (HCV) infections. To ensure reliability, two distinct mathematical models and a sensitivity analysis were employed. Results: The sensitivity analyses conducted with the models reveal the potential for SIFs in Ottawa to be a fiscally responsible harm reduction strategy for the prevention of HCV cases when considered independently. With a baseline sharing rate of 19%, the cumulative annual cost model supported the establishment of two SIFs and the marginal annual cost model supported the establishment of a single SIF. Most often, the prevention of HIV or HCV alone were not sufficient to justify the establishment cost-effectiveness; rather, only when both HIV and HCV are considered does sufficient economic support became apparent. Conclusions: Funding supervised injection facilities in Ottawa appears to be an efficient and effective use of financial resources in the public health domain.
Andresen, M.A., Frank, R., & Felson, M. (2014). Age and the distance to crime. Criminology & Criminal Justice, 14(3), 314 - 333.
Abstract: The journey-to-crime literature consistently shows that the distance to crime is short, particularly for violent crimes. Recent research has revealed methodological concerns regarding various (improper) groupings of data, nesting effects. In this paper we investigate one such nesting effect: the relationship between age and the distance to crime. Contrary to much of the research that investigates this phenomenon, using a large incident-based data set of more than 100 000 crime trips, we find that the relationship between age and the distance to crime is best described as quadratic but this quadratic relationship is not universal across all crime classifications.
Andresen, M.A., & Malleson, N. (2014). Police foot patrol and crime displacement: A local analysis. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 186 - 199.
Abstract: Police patrol, motorized and foot, has a long history of being used as a crime prevention method. Scientific evaluations of this crime prevention technique have been undertaken for at least 40 years, with mixed results. One of the important questions to be answered regarding the implementation of a police patrol is the presence of crime displacement: criminal activity simply moving around the corner, away from the primary patrol area. Previous investigations of this phenomenon have found that, most often, crime displacement is non-existent or less than crime reductions in the primary area of interest. In this paper, we investigate local crime displacement. We use a spatial point pattern test that can identify changes in the spatial patterns/distribution of crime even if crime in all areas has decreased. We find moderate evidence for the presence of this spatial shift and discuss the implications.
Jalles, J.T., & Andresen, M.A. (2014). Suicide and unemployment: A panel analysis of Canadian provinces. Archives of Suicide Research, 18(1), 14 - 27.
Abstract:Objective: To investigate the causal relationship between suicide and unemployment. Methods: We use panel data from Canadian provinces and use recent panel econometric techniques to account for endogenous structural breaks in both the unit root and cointegration testing procedures in order to account for statistical specification issues. Results: We find that the relationship between unemployment and suicide is context dependent. We do find positive and statistically significant relationships, but only for males in particular provinces. Conclusion: The relationship between unemployment and suicide is not monolithic. Rather, relationships are not always as expected for different demographic groups and all places.
Reid, A.A., & Andresen, M.A. (2014). An evaluation of CCTV in a car park using police and insurance data. Security Journal, 27(1), 55 - 79.
Abstract: A non-monitored Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) pilot project commenced at the Scott Road Skytrain Station Park and Ride in Surrey, BC in August 2009. The pilot project was implemented by the City of Surrey and scheduled for one year. This paper reports on an evaluation of the CCTV system with respect to its ability to reduce vehicle-related crime at the pilot site. Using police and insurance data, the evaluation considers the trends of vehicle-related crimes over several years in the City of Surrey and the northern district of the Corporation of Delta, BC. In general, there is little evidence of a significant drop in vehicle-related crime that can be attributed to the CCTV system. Moreover, we show that the results are dependent upon the methods used for evaluation; this is critical because we show that a more commonly used method (that we consider inappropriate) indicates a significant drop in vehicle-related crime.
Jozaghi, E., Reid, A.A., & Andresen, M.A. (2013). A cost-benefit/cost-effectiveness analysis of proposed supervised injection facilities in Montreal, Canada. Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy, 8, Article 25.
Abstract:Background: This paper will determine whether expanding Insite (North America's first and only supervised injection facility) to more locations in Canada such as Montreal, cost less than the health care consequences of not having such expanded programs for injection drug users. Methods: By analyzing secondary data gathered in 2012, this paper relies on mathematical models to estimate the number of new HIV and Hepatitis C (HCV) infections prevented as a result of additional SIF locations in Montreal. Results: With very conservative estimates, it is predicted that the addition of each supervised injection facility (up-to a maximum of three) in Montreal will on average prevent 11 cases of HIV and 65 cases of HCV each year. As a result, there is a net cost saving of CDN$0.686 million (HIV) and CDN$0.8 million (HCV) for each additional supervised injection site each year. This translates into a net average benefit-cost ratio of 1.21: 1 for both HIV and HCV. Conclusions: Funding supervised injection facilities in Montreal appears to be an efficient and effective use of financial resources in the public health domain.
Andresen, M.A., & Malleson, N. (2013). Crime seasonality and its variations across space. Applied Geography, 43, 25 - 35.
Abstract: Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy.
Andresen, M.A. (2013). Unemployment, business cycles, crime, and the Canadian provinces. Journal of Criminal Justice, 41(4), 220 - 227.
Abstract:Purpose. Test the Cantor and Land (1985) model using multiple measures of the state of the economy. Methods. A panel data set of the 10 Canadian provinces, 1981 – 2009, is analyzed using a hybrid modeling approach called a decomposition model. Rather than one economy-related model, four are included in the analysis: gross provincial product, gross provincial product per capita, unemployment rate, and low income. Results. All economy-related variables matter for property and violent crime, but the sign and magnitude of the estimated parameters vary based on context. Conclusions. The relationship between the economy and crime is complex. Only including one economy-related variable appears to result in omitted variable bias. As such, any evaluation of the relationship between the economy and crime must consider multiple measures of the economy.
Andresen, M.A. (2013). International immigration, internal migration, and homicide in Canadian provinces. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 57(5), 632 - 657.
Abstract: The relationship between immigration and crime is politically charged and often fueled by the presence (or lack) of xenophobia. Many theoretical and empirical assessments of this relationship indicate that immigration does indeed lead to increased crime, but more recent (and very early) research investigating homicide calls this finding into question. The current analysis investigates the relationship between immigration and homicide using multiple measures of migration and Canadian provinces as the unit of analysis. It is found that the link between immigration and homicide is complex and dependent upon the measure of migration employed. Generally speaking, the results presented here are consistent with the more recent and very early research. Immigration, in and of itself, does not increase homicide. Rather it is the increase in the most criminogenic sub-population that matters, young males.
Andresen, M.A. (2013). A robust solution for the Canada - United States border puzzle. International Trade Journal, 27(2), 142 - 155.
Abstract: The border effect states that Canadian provinces trade substantially more with other provinces than U.S. states after controlling for economic size and distance. This border effect is listed as one of the six puzzles of international economics and has spawned a plethora of research investigating its existence, magnitude, and most recently a solution. This paper investigates this solution in order to determine if it is robust. After identifying possible economic and statistical misspecification, the solution is shown to be robust. Therefore, the border effect is reduced to a reasonable magnitude, but also changes its sign to become consistent with expectations.
Jozaghi, E., & Andresen, M.A. (2013). Should North America's first and only supervised injection facility (InSite) be expanded in British Columbia, Canada? Harm Reduction Journal, 10, Article 1.
Abstract:Background: This article reports qualitative findings from a sample of 31 purposively chosen injection drug users (IDUs) from Vancouver, Surrey and Victoria, British Columbia interviewed to examine the context of safe injection site in transforming their lives. Further, the purpose is to determine whether the first and only supervised injection facility (SIF) in North America, InSite, needs to be expanded to other cities. Methods: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted in a classical anthropological strategy of conversational format as drug users were actively involved in their routine activities. Purposive sampling combined with snowball sampling techniques was employed to recruit the participants. Audio recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed thematically using NVivo 9 software. Results: Attending InSite has numerous positive effects on the lives of IDUs including: saving lives, reducing HIV and HCV risk behavior, decreasing injection in public, reducing public syringe disposal, reducing use of various medical resources and increasing access to nursing and other primary health services. Conclusions: There is an urgent need to expand the current facility to cities where injection drug use is prevalent to reduce overdose deaths, reduce needle sharing, reduce hospital emergency care, and increase safety. In addition, InSite’s positive changes have contributed to a cultural transformation in drug use within the Downtown Eastside and neighbouring communities
Frank, R., Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham, P.L. (2013). Visualizing the directional bias in property crime incidents for five Canadian municipalities. Canadian Geographer, 57(1), 31 - 42.
Abstract: There are three interconnected and fundamental elements that define the spatiality of crime: places, distances, and directions. Over the past 180 years, research has flourished for the first two fundamental elements with relatively little research on directionality. In this paper, we develop a visualization technique allowing for the display of the directional bias for a large number of offenders that aids in subsequent analysis. We show that a directional bias in criminal activity is present overall, but it is not monolithic. Consequently, urban form and understanding place play a strong role in criminal directional biases for moving through our environments.
Andresen, M.A., & Jozaghi, E. (2012). The point of diminishing returns: An examination of expanding Vancouver's Insite. Urban Studies, 49(16), 3531 - 3544.
Abstract: North America's only government-sanctioned supervised injection facility, Insite, has been subjected to substantial research. This research has found evidence for numerous public health benefits: decreased risky injection behaviour, decreased fatal overdoses, increased probability of initiating and maintaining addiction treatment, and cost-effectiveness. To date, a small number of costing studies have emerged with none of them investigating Insite expansions. We perform such an analysis and find that based on benefit-cost ratios Insite should be expanded. However, this expansion is dependent on altering injection drug user behaviour outside of Insite.
Andresen, M.A., Felson, M., & Frank, R. (2012). The geometry of offending and victimization. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 54(4), 495 - 510.
Abstract: The crime mobility triangle summarizes the spatial divergence of three locations: the offender's residence, the victim's residence, and the location of the delinquent act itself. The farther these three locations are from one another, the greater the area covered by the mobility triangle. The original mobility triangle was not designed for cases with multiple offenders or multiple victims. Accordingly, the current paper defines the crime mobility polygon and its corresponding area. We calculate the areas contained within mobility polygons for 26 476 index crime incidents. These calculations demonstrate the influence of extra crime participants upon the area an incident covers. We find that not all crime classifications have substantial increases in their mobility area as the number of individuals increase.
Reid, A.A., & Andresen, M.A. (2012). The impact of a closed-circuit television in a car park on the fear of crime: Evidence from a victimization survey. Crime Prevention & Community Safety, 14(4), 293 - 316.
Abstract: In August 2009 a Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) pilot project commenced at the Scott Road Skytrain Station Park and Ride in Surrey, BC. This paper is an evaluation of the CCTV system with respect to its ability to reduce vehicle-related crime and fear of crime at the pilot site. Using results of victimization surveys, the evaluation considers the trends of vehicle-related crimes over two years at the car park. While the reductions in vehicle-related crime are large enough in magnitude to conclude that the CCTV system was effective, without further investigation it is difficult to quantify the decrease. Significant reductions in fear of crime are also identified, but these reductions vary by demographic factors.
Andresen, M.A. (2012). Unemployment and crime: A neighborhood level panel data approach. Social Science Research, 41(6), 1615 - 1628.
Abstract: Twenty-five years ago, David Cantor and Kenneth Land presented a model of the relationship between unemployment and crime. This model showed the complexity of this seemingly simple relationship. Namely, there are two independent and counteracting effects from unemployment that affect crime: motivation and guardianship. In their analysis, Cantor and Land found that the guardianship effect dominates the motivation effect, but subsequent research has questioned this result. In this paper, the unemployment and crime relationship is tested using a neighborhood level hybrid modeling approach. Such a method allows for the nuances of Cantor and Land's model to be tested at a fine ecological resolution for the first time. It is found that both motivation and guardianship matter for crime, but at different time frames: motivation matters in the long-run whereas guardianship matters in the short-run, similar to what Cantor and Land hypothesized.
Andresen, M.A., & Linning, S.J. (2012). The (in)appropriateness of aggregating across crime types. Applied Geography, 35(1-2), 275 - 282.
Abstract: Researchers in the spatial analysis literature commonly aggregate crime types: property, violent, and total crime, for example. This practice is done for a number of reasons that range from low crime counts to confidentiality to the form of data provided to researchers. But is this practice appropriate, particularly in the context of studying spatial patterns? In this paper, we analyze the appropriateness of such crime type aggregations. We find that in almost all cases, aggregating crime types is inappropriate for polygon-based analyses. Only in the cases of micro-spatial units of analysis (street segments) may these aggregations be appropriate. Therefore, aggregating crime types in a study that implicitly or explicitly considers the spatial patterns of crime is inappropriate.
Andresen, M.A., & Felson, M. (2012). Co-offending and the diversification of crime types. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 56(5), 811 - 829.
Abstract: There is theoretical and empirical support for co-offending being important not only for understanding current offending, but also subsequent offending. The fundamental question is: why? In this paper, an aggregate analysis is performed that begins to answer this question. Disaggregating solo- and co-offending by single year of age (12 - 29 years) and crime type in a largely metropolitan dataset from British Columbia, Canada, 2002 - 2006, it is shown that the distribution of co-offences is significantly more varied than the distribution of solo-offences. This more varied distribution of co-offences favors property crimes during youth but fades as offenders age.
Andresen, M.A., & Tong, W. (2012). The impact of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games on crime in Vancouver. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 54(3), 333 - 361.
Abstract: There is little research on exceptional events and crime. Exceptional events affect lifestyles and routines of large amounts of people: natural disasters, worldwide political meetings, and international sporting competitions. In this paper, we examine the impact of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games on assault, theft, mischief, and prostitution in Vancouver neighborhoods. Overall, there is no evidence to support that the Olympic Games impacted all crime types and in all places. However, we do find increases in assault that relate to the Olympic Games in a few key neighborhoods. As with previous research, it appears the substantial increase in security personnel (police, military, etc.) mitigates the potential increase in crime.
Andresen, M.A., Jenion, G.W., & Reid, A.A. (2012). An evaluation of ambient population estimates for use in crime analysis. Crime Mapping: A Journal of Research and Practice, 4(1), 8 - 31.
Abstract: Conventionally calculated crime rates are plagued with the selection of the population at risk of criminal victimization. Recent crime analysis research has employed a new measure of the population at risk, the ambient population, but this new measurement of the population at risk has not undergone much external evaluation. We use land use data to measure population attractors as an evaluation of the ambient population estimates. We find that land use is not a good predictor of population increases predicted by the ambient population.
Pereira, A.S., Jalles, J.T., & Andresen, M.A. (2012). Structural change and foreign direct investment: Globalization and regional economic integration. Portuguese Economic Journal, 11(1), 35 - 82.
Abstract: This paper investigates flows of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and FDI-to-GDP ratios in a sample of 62 countries over a 30 year time span. Using several endogenous structural break procedures (allowing for one and two break points), we find that: 1) the great majority of the series have structural breaks in the last fifteen years, 2) post-break FDI and FDI/GDP ratios are substantially higher than the pre-break values, and 3) most breaks seem to be related to globalization, regional economic integration, economic growth, or political instability. Static and dynamic panel-data analyses accounting for and/or addressing endogeneity, simultaneity, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence show that FDI is negatively related to exchange rate volatility and GDP per capita, but positively related to some regional integration agreements, trade openness, GDP, and GDP growth. Most notably, the European Union is the only regional economic integration unit found to consistently have significant and positive effects on FDI.
Frank, R., Andresen, M.A., & Felson, M. (2012). The geodiversity of crime: Evidence from British Columbia. Applied Geography, 34, 180 - 188.
Abstract: Crime mapping has established central tendencies, e.g., that crime trips tend to be certain lengths. But this is only one half of the convergence that leads to a crime. Crime mobility research, however, considers the simultaneous movements of both offenders and victims. In this paper, we consider the geodiversity of crime mobility: there are variations in the amount of area covered by various crimes depending on the variations of criminal opportunity. Extending the crime mobility research to consider co-offending, co-victimization, and area covered rather than typologies, we find strong evidence for geodiversity in crime. This geodiversity varies across crime types within a single municipality as well as across municipalities within a single crime type.
Frank, R., Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham, P.L. (2012). Criminal directionality and the structure of urban form. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32(1), 37 - 42.
Abstract: Spatial criminology has three interrelated elements: place, distance, and direction. Though directionality has had theoretical support for many years, very few empirical verifications of this component of crime have emerged. In this article, we investigate the strength of directionality by comparing a simulated randomized dataset and a large incident-based dataset of repeat offenders. We find strong evidence for a strong presence of directionality in criminal spatial decision-making. This aspect of the spatiality of crime must be considered in any attempts to understand the etiology of crime.
Andresen, M.A., & Felson, M. (2012). An investigation into the fundamental regularities of co-offending for violent and property crime classifications. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 54(1), 101 - 115.
Abstract: Co-offending research has generated two fundamental regularities. First, co-offending is most prevalent during youth and then decreases as offenders age. Second, the average number of offenders per criminal incident is also highest in youth and decreases as offenders age. These regularities, and co-offending in general, are often explained with reference to a developmental approach: youth spend more time in groups than adults for their activities and crime is simply one of those activities. We investigate these empirical regularities by single year of age, 12 - 29 years with a detailed crime classification in a large sample from British Columbia. These empirical regularities prove to be far from monolithic, being less notable for a number of violent crime classifications as offenders age.
Andresen, M.A. (2011). The impact of accession to the European Union on violent crime in Lithuania. European Sociological Review, 27(6), 759 - 771.
Abstract: Research on Russia's transition from a centrally-planned to a free market economy indicates that socio-economic adjustment led to increases in violent crime. This study assesses the impact of accession to the European Union on the levels and trends of violent crimes in Lithuania using panel data representing Lithuanian municipalities (2001 - 2006) and fixed effect models. The levels and trends of violent crime in Lithuania are impacted: the levels of violent crime increase, but the subsequent trends are decreasing. However, the decreasing trends in violent crime will not offset the increased levels of violent crime within any short period of time. Consequently, countries considering, or in the process of, economic integration need to be aware of the potential increase in violent crime that may occur.
Frank, R., Andresen, M.A., Cheng, C., & Brantingham, P.L. (2011). Finding criminal attractors based on offenders' directionality of crimes. Proceedings of the European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, 86 - 93.
Abstract: According to Crime Pattern Theory, individuals all have routine daily activities which require frequent travel between several nodes, with each being used for a different purpose, such as home, work or shopping. As people move between these nodes, their familiarity with the spatial area around the nodes, as well as between nodes, increases. Offenders have the same spatial movement patterns and Awareness Spaces as regular people, hence according to theory an offender will commit the crimes in their own Awareness Space. This idea is used to predict the location of the nodes within the Awareness Space of offenders. The activities of 57,962 offenders who were charged or charges were recommended against them were used to test this idea by mapping their offense locations with respect to their home locations to determine the directions they move. Once directionality to crime was established for each offender, a unique clustering technique, based on K-Means, was used to calculate their Cardinal Directions through which the awareness nodes for all offenders were calculated. It was found that, by looking at the results of various clustering parameters, offenders tend to move towards central shopping areas in a city, and commit crimes along the way. Almost all cluster centers were within one kilometer of a shopping center. This technique of finding Criminal Attractors allows for the reconstruction of the spatial profile of offenders, which allows for narrowing the possible suspects for new crimes.
Andresen, M.A. (2011). Estimating the probability of local crime clusters: The impact of immediate spatial neighbors. Journal of Criminal Justice, 39(5), 394 - 404.
Abstract:Purpose: To investigate the importance of immediate spatial neighbors when investigating local crime patterns. Methods: Local indicators of spatial association are used to identify local crime clusters. The classification scheme of these local crime clusters is then modeled in a multinomial logistic regression. Results: The results show that immediate spatial neighbors are important for understanding local crime patterns. Though (positive) spatial autocorrelation has long been known to be present with crime data, this analysis suggests that negative spatial autocorrelation (if present) has a significantly different implication. Generally speaking, when predicting a local crime cluster type, the immediate spatial neighbors are more important for correct prediction. As such, a low local crime area that is surrounded by high crime areas presents itself as a high crime area in the regression results. Conclusions: Therefore, efforts to understand the criminal nature of an area must not consider that area in isolation.
Andresen, M.A. (2011). The ambient population and crime analysis. Professional Geographer, 63(2), 193 - 212.
Abstract: This article uses an alternative measure of the population at risk, the ambient population (provided by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), in crime rate calculations. It is shown through a variety of statistical analyses at two different scales of aggregation that this alternatively calculated crime rate is not always related to the conventionally calculated crime rate. The implications of this finding are that past theoretical testing and policy formation may have been based on spurious results, showing the importance of remaining current with the developments of geographic information science technologies and data availability when undertaking a spatial analysis of crime.
Andresen, M.A., & Malleson, N. (2011). Testing the stability of crime patterns: Implications for theory and policy. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(1), 58 - 82.
Abstract: Recent research in the "crime at places" literature is concerned with smaller units of analysis than conventional spatial criminology. An important issue is whether the spatial patterns observed in conventional spatial criminology focused on neighborhoods remain when the analysis shifts to street segments. In this paper, we employ a new spatial point pattern test that identifies the similarity in spatial point patterns. This test is local in nature such that the output can be mapped showing where differences are present. Using this test, we investigate the stability of crime patterns moving from census tracts to dissemination areas to street segments. We find that general crime patterns are somewhat similar at all spatial scales, but finer scales of analysis reveal significant variations within larger units. This result demonstrates the importance of analysing crime patterns at small scales and has important implications for further theoretical development and policy implementation.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). The geography of the Canada - United States border effect. Regional Studies, 44(5), 579 - 594.
Abstract: The Canada - United States border effect is a heavily researched area. Despite the plethora of this research, very few regional analyses have emerged. This lack of regional analyses is curious because this limited research has shown a strong geographical component to the border effect. This paper contributes to the border effect literature by resolving the border effect through proper economic and statistical specification. Rather than the border representing a strong friction between Canada and the United States, it is shown that most provinces experience an insignificant or positive effect from the border.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). A cross-industry analysis of intra-industry trade measurement thresholds: Canada and the United States, 1988-1999. Empirical Economics, 38(3), 793 - 808.
Abstract: The measurement of intra-industry trade allows for the separation of horizontal from vertical intra-industry trade using thresholds to categorize different types of trade. Using product-level data on Canada--United States international trade and corresponding cross-industry determinants, this study tests the sensitivity of these thresholds finding that previous studies may have incorrectly specified the measurement of intra-industry trade.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). Canada - United States interregional trade: Quasi-points and spatial change. Canadian Geographer, 54(2), 139 - 157.
Abstract: Interregional trade between Canada and the U.S. has undergone significant change since the inception of free trade. However, the magnitude of that change for all regions involved has only been alluded to given the lack of an appropriate measure. This paper introduces the concept of a quasi-point and employs a spatial point pattern test to measure the degree of change in the interregional trade of Canadian provinces within Canada and the U.S. states. It is found that the degree of change in the interregional trade flows is related to the degree of change in the provincial tariff rates.
Andresen, M.A., & Jenion, G.W. (2010). Ambient populations and the calculation of crime rates and risk. Security Journal, 23(2), 114 - 133.
Abstract: In the past, crime rate calculations have favored one denominator for spatially-referenced crime rates, the residential population. Dominantly, this practice is the result of cost and time constraints on research. This paper uses freely available spatially-referenced population data, the LandScan Global Population Database, that provides an alternative measure of the population at risk in crime rate calculations, the ambient population. Calculated crime rates using the residential and ambient populations exhibit a weak statistical relationship. This provides a strong positive implication for the use of these data such that their utilization may give a more precise depiction of victimization, particularly when considering violent crime. Consequently, it is argued that ambient-based (violent) crime rates should be used to supplement the conventional residential-based (violent) crime rates.
Andresen, M.A. (2010). Geographies of international trade: Theory, borders, and regions. Geography Compass, 4(2), 94 - 105.
Abstract: As old as civilization itself, international trade is fundamentally important to the economic well-being of nations and their regions. As with any other economic activity, international trade has a geography. Despite this geographic nature of international trade, it is a relatively unexplored topic by economic geographers. This is not to say that economic geographers do not investigate international economic activity, only that they do not study the more general processes of international trade. In this paper, I review three facets of international trade that imply the importance of geography undertaken by economists and geographers: theory, borders, and regions. Recent theoretical research implicates the importance of geography as an integral component of trade theory; the political geography of trade (borders) is shown to have differential effects in different regions; and the formation of regional trading blocs reveals that geography is still important for understanding international relationships. All three of these facets are fundamentally geographical. It is argued here that the discipline of economic geography must broaden its scope in order to apply a geographical imagination to the understanding of international trade.
Andresen, M.A., & Felson, M. (2010). Situational crime prevention and co-offending. Crime Patterns and Analysis, 3(1), 3 - 13.
Abstract: The crime prevention literature often contrasts "social prevention" and "situational prevention". Social prevention focuses on reforming individuals through social policies. Situational prevention seeks instead to reduce crime by altering the settings or conditions in which we carry out daily routines and avoids trying to change offender dispositions. Yet offender dispositions are not their only "social" feature. Much crime, especially at young ages, is "co-offending" carried out in very small groups. In addition, offenders at diverse ages socialize in settings that lead to illegal acts in nearby times and places. Such settings are amenable to situational measures. Interestingly, situational crime prevention can alter the size, composition, timing, location, and informal supervision of small group activities and routines. This widens the range of crime reduction possibilities, while undermining the assertion that situational prevention is "non-social".
Andresen, M.A. (2010). Diurnal movements and the ambient population: An application to municipal level crime rate calculations. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 52(1), 97 - 109.
Abstract: Crime rates are often used to inform the public regarding their risk of criminal victimization. However, these crime rates are themselves at risk of misinforming the public. Recent research has used alternative crime rate calculations to show crime rate calculations are quite sensitive to the choice of the population at risk, but none of this research has been undertaken at the municipal level, only at the neighbourhood level. In this paper, municipal-level crime rates are calculated using conventional and alternative means to show the sensitivity of the crime rate. It is shown that because of our diurnal movements throughout metropolitan areas, municipalities gain and lose significant populations. And because of these changing populations, municipal-level crime rates must be calculated, and interpreted, with caution.
Andresen, M.A., & Felson, M. (2010). The impact of co-offending. British Journal of Criminology, 50(1), 66 - 81.
Abstract: Co-offending has a major impact on the arithmetic of crime rates and the burdens on the justice system. This paper studies co-offending by single year of age using data that comprise 750,000 negative police contacts (those charged, chargeable, and suspected in criminal offenses) in a largely metropolitan data set from British Columbia, Canada, 2002 - 2006. We find that shifts in co-offending rates within teenage years are extremely rapid and highly sensitive to sample age ranges, such that a single co-offending rate for all teenagers is misleading. Co-offending opens a range of policy options and issues concerning the presence of youth hangouts and offender convergence settings that can assist the search for suitable co-offenders.
Andresen, M.A., & Boyd, N.T. (2010). A cost - benefit and cost - effectiveness analysis of Vancouver's supervised injection facility. International Journal of Drug Policy, 21(1), 70 - 76.
Abstract:Background: A supervised injection facility has been established in North America: Insite, in Vancouver, British Columbia. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a cost - effectiveness and cost - benefit analysis of this supervised injection facility using secondary data gathered and analyzed in 2008. In using these data we seek to determine whether the facility's prevention of infections and deaths among injection drug users is of greater or lesser economic cost than the cost involved in providing this service - Insite - to this community. Methods: Mathematical modeling is used to estimate the number of new HIV infections and deaths prevented each year. We use the number of these new HIV infections and deaths prevented, in conjunction with estimated lifetime public health care costs of a new HIV infection, and the value of a life, in order to calculate an identifiable portion of the societal benefits of Insite. The annual costs of operating the supervised injection facility are used to measure the social costs of Insite. In using this information, we calculate cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratios for the supervised injection facility. Results: Through the use of conservative estimates, Vancouver's supervised injection facility, Insite, on average, prevents 35 new cases of HIV and almost 3 deaths each year. This provides a societal benefit in excess of $6 million per year after the program costs are taken into account, translating into an average benefit-cost ratio of 5.12 : 1. Conclusion: Vancouver's supervised injection facility appears to be an effective and efficient use of public health care resources, based on a modeling study of only two specific and measureable benefits - HIV infection and overdose death.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Canada - United States interregional trade flows, 1989 - 2001. Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 32(2), 187 - 202.
Abstract: Canada and the U.S. established two free trade agreements in recent years. The majority of research investigating the effects of these agreements is performed at the national level, potentially obscuring local effects from free trade. The research that does investigate regional effects of free trade typically aggregates provinces and states into regions and/or is undertaken using one year of trade data. The present analysis uses provinces and states as the spatial units of analysis studying trade volumes, shares, and economic dependence over time. It is found that the geography of interregional trade within Canada and the U.S. has changed significantly over the study period, with geographical proximity being one of the drivers of change.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). The border puzzle is solved. Applied Economics Letters, 16(16), 1617 - 1620.
Abstract: This paper solves the border puzzle that asks why countries have such a strong preference for consuming their own goods. After replicating the negative impact of the border on Canada - United States international trade using the methods of previous research, it is shown that past estimates that find the border to be a significant barrier to international trade are the result of statistical misspecification.
Andresen, M.A., Wuschke, K., Kinney, J.B., Brantingham, P.J., & Brantingham, P.L. (2009). Cartograms, crime, and location quotients. Crime Patterns and Analysis, 2(1), 31 - 46.
Abstract: Visualizing spatial information has a long history in the field of cartography. Though there are generally accepted forms of spatial data visualization to represent different types of spatial data, the interpretation of the resulting maps tends to be subjective, at best, and incorrect, at worst. Cartograms are an increasingly popular form of spatial data visualization, recently applied in political and epidemiological analyses in an attempt to better represent the spatial data under analysis. We use the cartogram procedure to map crime rates and location quotients. Using this visualization approach we are able to show the usefulness of cartograms to represent crime.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Crime in Lithuania: The impact of accession to the European Union. European Journal of Criminology, 6(4), 337 - 360.
Abstract: The European Union (EU) has expanded its membership significantly in recent years to include Central and Eastern European countries. These countries are at significantly different levels of economic development than the other member states of the EU and are expected to undergo an economic adjustment to their new social, political, and economic reality. This paper investigates the effects on property crime of this economic adjustment to accession to the EU, using Lithuania as a case study. Using Lithuanian municipalities and fixed-effects estimation for 2001-6, the statistical results indicate that accession to the EU has led to a significant increase in theft, burglary, and juvenile delinquency.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Testing for similarity in area-based spatial patterns: A nonparametric Monte Carlo approach. Applied Geography, 29(3), 333 - 345.
Abstract: The proliferation of geographic information systems and point data has made the analysis of spatial point patterns of increasing interest in a variety of disciplines. Though early forms of spatial point pattern analysis were limited in their scope, current forms have been developed that provide significant insight into underlying data generating processes. This paper builds on the spatial point pattern analysis literature through the development a nonparametric Monte Carlo spatial point pattern test (and corresponding index) to measure the degree of similarity between two spatial point patterns. The applicability of this new test is then shown using crime data.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Asynchronous discussion forums: Success factors, outcomes, assessments, and limitations. Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 12(1), 249 - 257.
Abstract: Online learning has been burgeoning over the past decade with one of the more popular modes of conducting online learning being the asynchronous online courses. Within the asynchronous online course, the asynchronous discussion forum replaces the face-to-face interaction of the traditional classroom, but is this form of discussion able to enhance the learning process? This paper reviews the literature regarding asynchronous discussion forums finding that that the asynchronous discussion forum is able to generate the critical dimensions of learning found in the traditional classroom, but it has its limitations.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). The geographical effects of the NAFTA on Canadian provinces. Annals of Regional Science, 43(1), 251 - 265.
Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the Canadian provinces. A large body of research has emerged testing the effects of the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement (CUFTA) and the NAFTA, but the majority of that research has analyzed the effect of free trade at the national scale despite the fact that different provinces have different industrial compositions and levels of integration with the United States. It is found that there is a geographical component to the effect of the NAFTA, and this geographical component varies from province to province.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Regionalizing global trade patterns, 1981 - 2001: Application of a new method. Canadian Geographer, 53(1), 24 - 44.
Abstract: This paper investigates the establishment of trading regions in the global economy at the national level using a measure of trade intensity and a regional assignment algorithm that generates economically meaningful trading regions. It is found that although there is definite regionalization in the global economy with regard to international trade, there is no evidence of an increase in the concentration of that regionalization over time. The geography of international trade is found to be incredibly dynamic, with change related to political, historical, and economic forces. Overall, trading regions have relatively few members and are increasingly a set of geographically close countries.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Trade specialization and reciprocal trading relationships in Canada and the United States, 1989 and 2001. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 99(1), 163 - 183.
Abstract: Past research investigating the clusters in the geography of international trade flows have focused on national units of analysis, despite the fact that sub-national units display geographical patterns of trade distinct from their respective nations. This article investigates the interregional trade flows of Canada (provinces) and the United States (states) using a measure of trade specialization, similar to the location quotient, as well as maintaining provinces and states as the spatial units of analysis. After an initial investigation of the trade specialization of Canadian provinces, trading regions within Canada and the United States are determined. It is found that regional trading relationships have evolved since the establishment of free trade between Canada and the United States. This evolution is the result of decreased costs in accessing foreign markets. These new trading relationships now incorporate more U.S. states and fewer Canadian provinces in most cases.
Andresen, M.A. (2009). Crime specialization across the Canadian provinces. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 51(1), 31 - 53.
Abstract: For many years, the Canadian provinces have exhibited a pattern where crime rates increase from east to west. Despite this regional pattern of crime being of long standing, there has been little research that attempts to explain it. This present article approaches the problem by calling the pattern itself into question. Using an alternative measure of crime, the location quotient, it is shown that western Canada does not simply have higher levels of all crime in Canada. Rather, while a given individual is more likely to be a victim of a crime in the western provinces, not all crimes are disproportionately higher in the west. It is found that different provinces have different tendencies in relation to particular kinds of crime, and this implies that focusing only on the level of criminal activity may be misleading.
Andresen, M.A., & Brantingham, P.L. (2008). Visualizing ambient population data within census boundaries: A dasymetric mapping procedure. Cartographica, 43(4), 267 - 275.
Abstract: The visualization of areal census data is sensitive to the modifiable areal unit problem. Consequently, though not widely used, dasymetric mapping procedures have been developed to provide a more convincing representation of such areal data. This paper extends past research on dasymetric mapping procedures to visualize fine resolution raster data for the ambient population within census boundaries. We find that the dasymetric mapping procedure developed in this paper generates maps that are almost identical to non-dasymetric maps in urban centers but vastly different maps in rural areas while maintaining reference to other data represented in the census boundaries for later analysis.
Andresen, M.A., & Jenion, G.W. (2008). Crime prevention and the science of where people are. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 19(2), 164 - 180.
Abstract: Crime prevention initiatives are often conceptualized working at Primary-Secondary-Tertiary (PST) levels. Primary prevention efforts address the underlying social, economic, and physical environment conditions that generate crime; secondary prevention efforts focus on people, places, and social conditions that are at high risk of crime; whereas tertiary prevention efforts are directed toward already existing and specific crime problems. This paper discusses the uses of the ambient population (a 24-hour average estimate of the population present in a spatial area) to better inform crime prevention initiatives within the PST framework. Though the results indicate the ambient population has utility for all three levels of crime prevention, the most immediate use is in tertiary prevention to better understand the nature of current crime problem-areas. This information
is not available from the resident (or census) population because the resident population indicates where people sleep, not where they are.
Andresen, M.A. (2008). The evolving quality of trade between Canada and the United States. Canadian Geographer, 52(1), 22 - 37.
Abstract: This paper examines the quality level of trade between Canada and the United States, 1979 - 2003, to investigate the relevance of staples theory for Canada. After disentangling the quality levels of trade, it is found that the pattern of quality-level trade changed significantly around the time free trade was established between Canada and the United States. Before free trade Canada was moving into the lower-end of quality, but after the establishment of free trade Canada is now moving into the higher-end of quality trade with the United States. This potentially means that Canada is getting out of the staples trap.
Andresen, M.A. (2007). Location quotients, ambient populations, and the spatial analysis of crime in Vancouver, Canada. Environment and Planning A, 39(10), 2423 - 2444.
Abstract: This paper uses the location quotient, a common measurement from economic geography and regional economics, to capture the specialization of criminal activity in Vancouver, Canada. Location quotients have barely been introduced into criminological research, yet they provide additional insight into crime analysis not available using crime counts and crime rates. The location quotients for automotive theft, break and enter, and violent crimes are mapped for Vancouver, Canada, and tested using social disorganization and routine activity theory as a theoretical framework. Strong support is found for these theories to predict specialization in criminal activity by interpreting their expectations in the context of crime-specific attractors.
Andresen, M.A. (2007). Homicide and medical science: Is there a relationship? Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 49(2), 185 - 204.
Abstract: Violent crime remains high in the United States and Canada. Some have hypothesized that there is a disparity between the trends of
the rates of aggravated assault (as well as violent crime, in general) and homicide that can be explained by decreases in trauma mortality rates. This hypothesis is supported through the ``lethality approach'' that measures the proportion of actual deaths (homicides) relative to potential deaths (homicides and aggravated assaults) in criminal activity. It is shown in this paper that the lethality approach is sensitive to data definitions and the disparity between the trends of the aggravated assault and homicide rates does not exist.
Andresen, M.A. (2006). A spatial analysis of crime in Vancouver, British Columbia: A synthesis of social disorganization and routine activity theory. Canadian Geographer, 50(4), 487 - 502.
Abstract: This paper investigates the spatial dimension of automotive theft, break and enter, and violent crime in Vancouver, British Columbia in 1996. The paper uses and synthesizes social disorganization theory and routine activity theory as a theoretical backcloth and employs a spatial autoregressive regression procedure that accounts for spatial autocorrelation between crime rates and socio-economic characteristics at the census tract level. Strong support is found for synthesizing these two most common spatial theories of crime. In particular, high unemployment (social disorganization theory) and the presence of young populations (routine activity theory) are the strongest predictors of criminal activity.
Andresen, M.A. (2006). The effect of North American trade liberalization on the nature of Canadian trade, 1989 - 2002. American Review of Canadian Studies, 36(2), 283 - 311.
Abstract: On 1st January 1989 followed by 1st January 1994, the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), respectively, entered into force involving the Government of Canada, the Government of the United Mexican States, and the Government of the United States of America. This paper uses data published by Statistics Canada International Trade Division to study of the changes in trade patterns between Canada and the world at the aggregate level as well as Canada and the United States at a more detailed industrial level, 1989 - 2002. At a national level, these indices show little change over the study period, but there is significant change measured at the industry level. Additionally, when international trade is separated into high-, medium-, and low-quality classifications, it is found that Canada is moving into higher quality international trade with the United States. As such, a detailed industry-level analysis provides a greater indication of trade-induced convergence and/or divergence between Canada and the United States than national measures.
Andresen, M.A. (2006). Crime measures and the spatial analysis of criminal activity. British Journal of Criminology, 46(2), 258 - 285.
Abstract: This paper investigates the spatial aspect of criminal activity in Vancouver, Canada employing social disorganization theory, routine activity theory and multiple measures of crime. Crime counts and crime rates with residential and ambient populations as denominators are calculated using the calls for service made to the Vancouver Police Department. The ambient population, a 24-hour average estimate of a population in a spatial unit to capture the population at risk, is obtained from the LandScan Global Population Database and calculated at a spatial resolution relevant to criminological research. Utilizing a spatial regression technique, strong support is found for routine activity theory across space and the use of ambient populations when calculating crime rates and measuring the population at risk.
Andresen, M.A., & Jenion, G.W. (2004). The unspecified temporal criminal event: What is unknown is known with aoristic analysis and multinomial logistic regression. Western Criminology Review, 5(3), 1 - 11.
Abstract: Environmental criminologists begin their study of crime by asking where and when crimes occur. Police databases contain information on the temporal nature of criminal events and some criminal events, such as burglary and automotive theft, are reported over an unspecified time period or time range/window-there is a start time and an end time but no actual time of occurrence. Recent work on this subject has manifested in a relatively new technique, aoristic analysis, which estimates the probability of a criminal offence occurring within a certain time span. This technique is a great step forward from previous temporal analysis techniques and has great utility for law enforcement personnel when analyzing range data. However, it is important that analysts use caution when databases contain abundances of extreme time ranges. In order to facilitate the comparative analyses of the temporal aspects of crime, an alternative technique is suggested, multinomial logistic regression, which incorporates the advantages of aoristic analysis and extends the analysis of the temporal criminal event into the realm of inferential statistics.
Frank, L.D., Andresen, M.A., & Schmid, T.L. (2004). Obesity relationships with community design, physical activity, and time spent in cars. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 27(2), 87 - 96.
Abstract: Obesity is a major health problem in the United States and around the world. To date, relationships between obesity and aspects of the built environment have not been evaluated empirically at the individual level. To evaluate the relationship between the built environment around each participant's place of residence and self-reported travel patterns (walking and time in a car), body mass index (BMI), and obesity for specific gender and ethnicity classifications. Body Mass Index, minutes spent in a car, kilometers walked, age, income, educational attainment, and gender were derived through a travel survey of 10,878 participants in the Atlanta, Georgia region. Objective measures of land use mix, net residential density, and street connectivity were developed within a 1-kilometer network distance of each participant's place of residence. A cross-sectional design was used to associate urban form measures with obesity, BMI, and transportation-related activity when adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. Discrete analyses were conducted across gender and ethnicity. The data were collected between 2000 and 2002 and analysis was conducted in 2004. Land-use mix had the strongest association with obesity (BMI >= 30 kg/m2), with each quartile increase being associated with a 12.2 percent reduction in the likelihood of obesity across gender and ethnicity. Each additional hour spent in a car per day was associated with a 6 percent increase in the likelihood of obesity. Conversely, each additional kilometer walked per day was associated with a 4.8 percent reduction in the likelihood of obesity. As a continuous measure, BMI was significantly associated with urban form for white cohorts. Relationships among urban form, walk distance, and time in a car were stronger among white than black cohorts. Measures of the built environment and travel patterns are important predictors of obesity across gender and ethnicity, yet relationships among the built environment, travel patterns, and weight may vary across gender and ethnicity. Strategies to increase land-use mix and distance walked while reducing time in a car can be effective as health interventions.
Andresen, M.A., Jenion, G.W., & Jenion, M.L. (2003). Conventional calculations of homicide rates lead to an inaccurate reflection of Canadian trends. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 45(1), 1 - 17.
Abstract: The published Canadian homicide rate indicates a steady downward trend since the mid--1970s. Yet, the conventional homicide rate inaccurately reflects the nature of homicide, when used as a social barometer, and should be supplemented with a new homicide rate, calculated using available demographic information about offender characteristics. This paper uses recent advances in statistical techniques to show that an age-adjusted homicide rate exhibits a significantly different trend than the conventional rate: (1) there was no structural break in the trend until the late 1980s; (2) until the early 1990s the trend was an increasing homicide rate; and (3) although the homicide rate has been decreasing since the mid--1990s, there is insufficient statistical evidence to suggest a new downward trend. These findings suggest that demographics and time series analysis are required to properly assess homicide trends, helping to isolate social variables so their effects on homicide rates can be more accurately determined. Homicide rates have a substantial affect on social policy and public opinion and therefore should be critically calculated. Finally, this paper demonstrates the benefits of cooperation between academic disciplines and the utility of taking advantage of the latest theoretical and empirical techniques to reach a better understanding of social phenomena.