Shifting Sands: Iran's Geopolitical Trajectory Since the Nuclear Deal

• Week 1: The nuclear deal
  We trace the history of the nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, from preliminary to final negotiations (2009–2016). As the agreement was reached under Obama’s administration, we examine the U.S. foreign policy he advanced in the Middle East and its impact on the region’s geopolitics. We’ll examine the deal’s advantages and drawbacks for the signatory powers and regional players, including Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states and Israel. The class includes a partial screening of a documentary.
• Week 2: The Shiite Crescent 
  We’ll follow the formation of the Shiite Crescent, advanced by Iran’s Islamic regime to extend its influence across the Middle East to the Mediterranean Sea and keep wars away from its borders. We’ll review a brief history of key Shiite military forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Ansar Allah (the Houthi movement) in Yemen, and examine the role of these forces in the geopolitics of their countries and in strengthening resistance against Israel across the region. The class includes a partial screening of a documentary.
• Week 3: The regional rivalries 
  We’ll examine the rivalries among regional and global powers—including Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, the U.S. and the European Union—in the Middle East following the nuclear deal (2016–2020). The session highlights how the shift from the Obama to Trump administrations reshaped the region’s geopolitics. We’ll focus on two key moments that posed major setbacks to Iran’s regional influence: the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
• Week 4: The Abraham Accords
  We’ll scrutinize Trump’s Middle East plan, embodied in the Abraham Accords and the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). We’ll consider how IMEC seeks to reinforce Israel’s dominance in the region with support from the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union as key economic and military stakeholders. We’ll assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Biden’s presidency on IMEC’s progress, as well as Iran’s efforts to challenge the project. Finally, we’ll consider the positions of other powers—including Azerbaijan, Russia and China—toward the U.S. and Israel’s pursuit of regional hegemony between 2020 and 2024.
• Week 5: The Al-Aqsa Flood (October 7) 
  This week, we trace a brief history of the Palestinian question since the establishment of Israel in 1948 to provide context for the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation of October 7, 2023. We examine how this event and the ensuing Gaza War brought the Palestinian issue—marginalized by the Abraham Accords—back to the forefront and dealt a setback to the IMEC project. We focus on shifting alliances and the geopolitical consequences of the war and subsequent events, including the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, for regional and global powers—particularly Iran and Israel—between 2023 and 2025.
• Week 6: The 12-Day War 
  We’ll examine the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran in June 2025 and its aftermath. We’ll trace the major events that have shaped the Middle East since then, focusing on shifting military and economic power dynamics and energy corridors in the region. We revisit the Palestinian issue and reassess Iran’s geopolitical position in light of these changes, while analyzing its efforts to maintain influence. Particular attention is given to how the strategic calculations of global powers—such as the U.S., U.K., European Union and China—have influenced new alliances and geopolitical shifts across the region.

By the end of the course, you should be able to:

• Describe the history of the nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers
• Identify the major events in the last 10 years that have shaped the Middle East and various actors’ strategies
• Determine the role of the energy corridors in shaping the geopolitics of the Middle East
• Identify Iran’s key regional strategies and the tools it uses to expand its influence
• Trace the development of Iran’s relationships with major actors such as the U.S., Russia, China, the EU, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan and others

• Lectures
• Participation in discussions
  
• Supplementary resources accessed through Canvas
  
• Reflective essay (applicable only to certificate students)

No textbook is required. We will provide all course materials online.