Mathieu Boudreault, UQAM

Title: Modelling climate-related physical risk for Canadian financial institutions with applications to P&C insurance and pension plans

Date: Friday, January 23rd, 2026
Time: 1:30PM (PDT)
Location: ASB 10900

Abstract:

There is increasing pressure on the financial services industry to disclose the sensitivity of their profitability and stress-test their solvency to various climate scenarios. However, it remains a challenge for actuaries and financial risk managers to fully model and integrate climate-related risks into their operations. This may in turn impact the resilience of the industry and the viability of mitigation and adaptation policies. In this presentation, we discuss the modelling of climate-related physical risk, that is, the financial uncertainty that stems from the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation or extreme heat. We present a consistent modelling framework that leverages statistical and climate models with three different applications: (1) fluvial floods in gauged and ungauged locations across Canada; (2) tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin (covering Canada, U.S. and Mexico), and; (3) mortality of Quebec pensioners due to heat waves. We then show projections of the latter three beyond 2025 based upon various emissions scenarios. We conclude the presentation with insurance and policy implications, and challenges ahead for governments and industry.